LAHORE, Sept 12 With weather getting increasingly mild and river flows dropping to a paltry 131,400 cusecs, both dams have started depleting fast, setting water planners' pulse racing fast.

Though the Indus River System Authority (Irsa) is still hoping some recovery in a week's time and still “waiting and watching”, metrological officials fear that weather might not get hot enough to bring any relief for the water planners. “The current water picture resembles that of the last year, when the Rabi season ended with over 30 per cent shortage,” says an Irsa official. But, it is certainly too early to firm up the forecast. The river inflows are fluctuating almost on a daily basis and the planners need to know where they ultimately stabilise, he says.

Once the stabilisation takes place, the authority will be able to finalise some forecast. The authority hopes that rivers will hit the baseline by 20th and picture would start getting clear after Eidul Fitr, he says.

The dams' situation resembles that of the last year on the corresponding day, says an official of the Punjab irrigation department. On Sept 12 last year, Tarbela Dam stood at 1,529 feet against 1,539 feet this year. The inflow last year was 60,000 cusecs and 68,000 cusecs on Saturday. The outflow was 130,000 cusecs against 115,000 cusecs this year.

The Mangla picture is also almost the same, he says. Last year, its level was 1,197 feet and it stood at 1,199 feet on Saturday. The inflow was 18,000 cusecs last year against 22,000 cusecs this year. The drawdown is, however, heavier this year - 40,000 cusecs against 29,000 cusecs this year, he says.

Similarly, the River Kabul was flowing at 14,000 cusecs last year against 18,000 cusecs on Saturday and the River Chenab 23,000 cusecs on Saturday against 18,000 cusecs last year, he says.

The apprehensions are certainly there that Rabi season might be tough for crops, especially wheat, but the department is still hoping against the hope that situation improves during the next eight days or so.

“The dam depletion has every kind of precedent,” says a member of the Punjab Water Council. If the situation is almost the same as last year, it is hardly a matter of consolation as the Irsa is trying to paint. Last year, the country suffered a heavy shortage and if that is the emerging picture, one should pray for the coming crops, he says.

Pakistan's water situation is deteriorating by the day, and it is time to “do bigger things on that front,” he says. The government needs to take “bold decisions about larger dams.” The Technical Committee on Water Resources, which the former president Pervez Musharraf had formed, conceded that “ample water was available for building new dams, and it was high time to go for bigger dams, and Kalabagh Dam is one of them,” he insists.