The Karachi share market witnessed lacklustre performance all through the week due to lack of triggers. The KSE-100 index moved in a narrow range.

Yet on Friday, the last trading day of the week, a snap rally enabled the KSE-100 index to yet again break the barrier of 18,000 points, and close at 18,043.31 points, representing a gain of 80.19 points, or 0.4 per cent, over the earlier week.

Most investors, particularly institutions, preferred to remain on the sidelines as a fog of uncertainty continued to hang on political and economic fronts.

Day traders and punters, meanwhile, made hasty entry and exit to benefit from volatility.

There were also quite a few sentiment dampeners, which included rumours related to a possible breakdown in cement prices and concerns on a weakening rupee due to IMF payments later in the week, and the rift between LDI operators and the Competition Commission of Pakistan (CCP).

JS Global analyst Furqan Ayub said that rumours of the breakdown in cement quota subsided, and the country managed to successfully pay the 11th installment of $143.7 million to the IMF without any major concerns, which enabled the stocks to rally on Friday.

Other key news highlights during the week on the political, economic and corporate fronts included the selection of Justice (retd) Mir Hazar Khan Khoso as the caretaker prime minister and the Hub Power Company’s announcement of commencement of operations of its subsidiary Laraib Energy.

The Supreme Court also redirected the CCP to complete the International Clearing House proceedings. DG Khan Cement plans to take exposure in Mozambique by investing $8.6 million in Sumaria Cement Holdings, and Warid Telecom UAE, the majority shareholder in Wateen Telecom, announced that it would buyback shares and delist the company from stock exchanges.

Foreign portfolio inflow during the week stood at $2.2 million, representing a 76 per cent decline from purchases by foreign investors in the earlier week.

Yet local investors were comforted by the fact that foreigners were still on the buying side.

It was possibly a major factor that kept the stock movement sideways instead of taking a plunge.

The market capitalisation saw an addition of Rs64 billion to close the week at Rs 4.447 trillion, from Rs4.383 trillion the previous week.

The dullness of the market was evident in the average daily volume of shares, which worked out at 151 million shares in the week, compared with an average of 186 million shares traded the week earlier, showing a fall of 18.7 per cent.

Average trading value slumped by 28.9 per cent to Rs4.25 billion, from Rs5.97 billion the previous week, which reflected the larger participation by second and third tier scrips.

Most major scrips in the oil and gas, fertiliser and cement sectors saw little change over the week.

Top gainers during the week included Shell Pakistan, Unilever Pakistan, Nestle Pakistan, Javedan Corporation, Standard Chartered Bank, National Refinery, Askari Bank, PTCL, Indus Motor, Attock Refinery, Attock Petroleum, Fauji Fertilizer, Bin Qasim, Fatima Fertilizer and Pak Suzuki Motor Company.

Heaviest falls were seen in Pakistan International Container Terminal, Bank of Khyber, JS Growth Fund, KESC, JDW Sugar Mills, Lot PTA and Honda Car.

Volume leaders included TRG Pakistan, Lot PTA, Fauji Cement, PTCL, Engro Corporation, PIA, Wateen Telecom and Maple Leaf Cement.

Future Outlook: Friday also marked the end of January-March quarter.

Analysts at Topline Securities calculated that the benchmark KSE-100 index had moved higher by six per cent during the quarter, with average daily traded volume up to Rs5.7 billion from Rs4.5 billion the earlier quarter.

Foreign investors kept the buying momentum, recording an inflow of $70 million during the quarter.

Topline analysts suggested that activity, going forward, will be determined by political events as the date for elections draw nearer.

“Market participants are likely to cheer signs of change in the political set up,” analysts said. The post of finance minister is still vacant in the interim setup, which is vital from market perspective for possible negotiations with the IMF.

Analysts at KASB Securities said that though a barren spell in terms of triggers was prevailing, the gradual visibility of corporate results on the horizon could drive stock-specific excitement. The same could, however, be muted by a general lack of payouts in the quarter starting April 1.

Market strategists at another large brokerage house believed that investors could remain cautious next week as they keep an eye on the caretaker setup.

With inflation numbers expected to be released next week, analysts forecast CPI to clock in at 6.6 per cent for March 2013 – the lowest since July 2009.

However, the soft CPI numbers are believed to largely remain irrelevant for the next State Bank of Pakistan Monetary Policy Statement, given the risks on the balance of payment front, and concerns over currency slippage.— Dilawar Hussain