AN estimated 37 per cent of the population was in a state of poverty during the year 2010-11, according to a study conducted at the Social Policy and Development Centre, Karachi.

Consistent with the earlier SPDC poverty estimates, this research also follows the 2,550 and 2,230 calories per day per adult as calorie norms (minimum requirement) for rural and urban areas, respectively.

The Calorie Consumption Functions (CCFs) are estimated separately for urban and rural areas. It is argued that consumption behaviour, purchasing patterns, dietary habits, taste and ecology are significantly different for urban and rural groups.

Again to make the poverty numbers comparable with earlier SPDC poverty research, these functions are estimated from the lowest quartile of distribution after ranking households with respect to per capita expenditure. Household per adult daily calorie consumption is regressed on household expenditure.

Table-1 displays computed poverty lines from estimated calorie consumption functions. According to the table, rupees 2,248 and 1,854 per capita per month were required during the year 2010-11 to purchase minimum calories for urban and rural areas respectively.

A population weighted average national poverty line, however, turns out as Rs.1,984 at the prices of HIES 2010-11.

The estimated poverty lines for urban and rural areas are mapped on household per capita total expenditure for computing various poverty measures or aggregates. Table-2 displays these poverty indices. Overall, 36.55 per cent of the population was poor during the year 2010-11.

The incidence of rural poverty is slightly higher, while the depth and severity of urban poverty is higher in rural areas.

Table 3 compares latest poverty estimates with 2004-05 figures. The estimates show a rise of about 7 percentage points in poverty incidence since 2004-05.

Rise in urban poverty is relatively higher (28 v/s 20 percent) as compared with the growth in its rural counterpart. Table 3 also reveals a significant rise in terms of the depth and severity of poverty during this period. The incidence figures propose that about 60 million people were below the poverty line during 2010-11, as against about 46 million during 2004-05.

The author is affiliated with Social Policy and Development Centre, Karachi