UP to 58 per cent of Pakistan’s population suffered from ‘food insecurity’ and another 29.6 per cent passed through a phase of ‘hunger or severe hunger’, according to a report submitted to the parliament based on findings of a National Nutrition Survey 2011.

Federal Minister for National Food Security and Research Mr Israrullah Zehri, who presented the report to the upper house of the parliament said, the World Bank and the UNDP-led examination of national data put 17.2 per cent people on poverty line in 2007-08.

He said a subsequent study by Sustainable Development Policy Institute in 2009 found 48.6 per cent people as food insecure and 22.4 per cent as extremely poor.

He conceded that remedial measures recommended by his ministry in consultation with World Food Programme for ‘National Zero Hunger Programme’ in March this year was yet to be formally approved and rolled out by the federal cabinet as it lacked operational details including those related to revitalising agriculture production and for incentivising farming community.

That should not be surprising given the fact that the cost of minimum food basket comprising basic items increased by 79 per cent during four years of the current government until December 2011, adding to malnutrition and poverty, according to the Planning Commission.

“The Change in Cost of Food Basket  has shown a consistent increase since 2007 from Rs1000 to Rs1790 (79 per cent) based on retail prices of December 2011.”

From 2007 to 2011, the price of wheat has increased by 67 per cent from Rs18 to Rs30 per kg , while the prices of pulses rose by 71 per cent to Rs84 per kg. Similarly sugar prices posted a massive increase of 147 per cent to Rs84 per cent, followed by vegetable ghee (57 per cent) and meat (94 per cent).

The cost of 2,150 calories, needed to keep the body and soul together, increased from Rs960 to Rs1,790, more than 86 per cent between 2007-08 and 2011-12.

The price of wheat, the major staple, registered an increase of 200 per cent during the 11-year period from 2001, adding by 20 per cent to the cost of monthly food basket.

The price of sugar during the period (2001-12) registered an increase of 200 per cent and its contribution to the monthly cost of food basket was six per cent. Prices of pulses increased by 134 per cent, a share of only two per cent in the food basket.

It said that vegetable ghee and edible oils were an important source of energy contributing 13 per cent to the monthly food basket and 16 per cent share in the overall food intake while meat remained an important source of nutrition.

Prices of ghee and edible oil increased by 200 per cent during the decade and that of meat by 300 per cent.

Meat contributed to about 11 per cent in the monthly food cost.

The Planning Commission said the current nutrition status was an important poverty parameter and impediment to human development. The government’s policy over the time has focused on achieving self-sufficiency in food production for sustained food availability. Affordability remains a key challenge.

“To meet part of the food supply from imports remains economically unacceptable; however, it has become inevitable for sustenance of essential food supplies.” As a result, the production of major food items and their availability over time have increased both in absolute and per capita availability and also overall energy availability.

However, the overall food availability alone is not enough for food security, the Planning Commission said, adding that food security objectives would require linking overall availability with effective consumption at household level.

The minimum food basket remained below availability and the actual consumption even lower than the food basket.

It was precisely because of these on-ground realities that a group of World Bank-led development partners feared early this month that Pakistan was unlikely to achieve its Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) even by 2025 as social spending and pace to provide quality nutrition to the countrymen has not increased, rather it has slowed.

In their assessments, they noted the enhanced role of provincial governments towards achieving MDG targets as social sector has devolved to the level of the provinces after 18th amendment and NFC Award.

They highlighted that a draft policy guidance for nutrition sensitive interventions on a multi-sectoral and provincial level would be finalised by December 2012 but financing gaps still remained. A Pakistan Nutrition Development Partners Group was constituted early this month for creation of multi-donor trust fund at the World Bank.

UNDP and UNESCO also found the outlook of social sector spending in Pakistan as ‘scary’ which needed to be improved.

The World Bank has also pointed out that the methodology being adopted by the government to assess poverty is not as per the undertaking earlier given to the bank while defining pro poor expenditures.

It says the factor of food subsidies alone was to be included in the pro poor expenditure, but now the government was including all kinds of subsidies being even allocated to the power sector in the pro-poor expenditures.

It argued for some sort of synchronisation between the previous and the new mythology in assessing the poverty figure that has officially been withheld for almost two years now after the completion of survey. The bank also highlights that social sector resources are inefficiently used.

The bank argued that under the said status quo, it is feared Pakistan would not achieve the MDGs by 2025 and hence a need for better alignment of budgetary expenditures with the development priorities of the government.

The bank is also advocating for increases in social spending to be consistent with available resource envelopes and insisting on fiscal consolidation and savings from low priority expenditures.

Some independent economists, however, see a clash of interest and political objectives in current inconsistent poverty estimates.

They hint at international lenders showing lower poverty estimates to justify their cases for more funding allocations, while the government construed poverty estimates in terms of failure and success of their economic policies.

Deputy Chairman of Planning Commission Dr Nadeemul Haq argues that the new poverty figure should be assessed both as per new and previous methodologies. The issue is which poverty figure should be adopted and this task has been given to the academia.

Finance Minister Dr Abdul Hafeez Shaikh wants the development partners to come up with plans with joint priorities in consultation with the government while respecting the right of the government in funding allocations.

“The joint evaluation mechanism should help bring transparency in the implementation of the projects by NGOs too”, he argues.—Khaleeq Kiani