An Indian man works at a textile factory in Ahmadabad. — AP Photo
An Indian man works at a textile factory in Ahmadabad. — AP Photo

NEW DELHI: India's economy will grow at 6.7 per cent in the current fiscal year, less than an earlier estimate of 7.5-8.0 per cent, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's Economic Advisory Council forecast on Friday.

In recent years the advisory panel has been overly optimistic about India's economic performance, and the revised forecasts are higher than estimates by private economists who now expect growth closer to 5.5 per cent for 2012/13.

India's economy has lost momentum due to global headwinds, sluggish policymaking, high interest rates and worries about a drought in parts of the country that may suppress investment and demand.

“The review acknowledges the current headwinds domestically, as well as global, and the downward revision is in line with broad expectations. However, given that there are cost slippage in government finances and reforms yet to come on board, alongside global uncertainty and geo-political risks, there could be downside to risks to growth and upside risks to inflation,” said Shubhada Rao, Chief Economist, Yes Bank, Mumbai.

“The GDP growth forecast looks on the optimistic side while inflation print can come below seven per cent at end March if the government doesn't raise fuel prices, but that will not be a true reflection of price pressures. In absence of specific government measures, it is difficult to expect capital inflows picking up. With the extent of forex intervention already done, the BoP (balance of payments) is already in deficit,” said A Prasanna, Economist, ICICI Securities Primary Dealership Ltd, Mumbai

Follow Dawn Business on Twitter, LinkedIn, Instagram and Facebook for insights on business, finance and tech from Pakistan and across the world.

Opinion

Editorial

Digital growth
Updated 25 Apr, 2024

Digital growth

Democratising digital development will catalyse a rapid, if not immediate, improvement in human development indicators for the underserved segments of the Pakistani citizenry.
Nikah rights
25 Apr, 2024

Nikah rights

THE Supreme Court recently delivered a judgement championing the rights of women within a marriage. The ruling...
Campus crackdowns
25 Apr, 2024

Campus crackdowns

WHILE most Western governments have either been gladly facilitating Israel’s genocidal war in Gaza, or meekly...
Ties with Tehran
Updated 24 Apr, 2024

Ties with Tehran

Tomorrow, if ties between Washington and Beijing nosedive, and the US asks Pakistan to reconsider CPEC, will we comply?
Working together
24 Apr, 2024

Working together

PAKISTAN’S democracy seems adrift, and no one understands this better than our politicians. The system has gone...
Farmers’ anxiety
24 Apr, 2024

Farmers’ anxiety

WHEAT prices in Punjab have plummeted far below the minimum support price owing to a bumper harvest, reckless...