LAHORE, May 2: Economic experts on Wednesday projected economy to grow by 2.7 per cent during the current fiscal year against government’s projection of four per cent.Speaking at the launch of a report on state of the economy by the Institute of Public Policy (IPP) of Beaconhouse National University, the experts expressed concern over steady decline in the GDP growth, which is the lowest in South Asia.IPP chairman Shahid Javed Burki said though the government was expecting four per cent growth this year, the IPP estimated it to be around 2.7 per cent.

He said investment had declined from 18.4 per cent of the GDP to 13.4 per cent and was one of the main factors for low growth.

He said Pakistan’s inability to increase exports was another factor for low growth and a prudent export strategy was needed to boost this sector.

He said the domestic sector did not have the ability to compensate for lower export growth.He said Pakistan’s share in global trade had declined to lowest ever level while that of other regional economies had increased.

He said the economy was in dire straits and needed a lot of serious work for revamping.

He said the Planning Commission of Pakistan had provided a viable roadmap that puts emphasis on economic “software” development for improving the quality of human resource and institutions and raising productivity.

He said trade with India could add 2-2.4 per cent to GDP growth if the process was not interrupted.Dr Ayesha Ghaus-Pasha said government’s budgetary projections for this year would not be met.

The investment to GDP ratio, she added, would further decline to 12.5 per cent of GDP while economic growth would be much lower than claimed by the government.

She said fiscal deficit would be around seven per cent of the GDP.

She said slowly developing middle class had boosted some sales in domestic market and revenue target would be close to the target.

She said the undocumented economy had provided some support to the poor.

Dr Hafiz Pasha gave an outline of the growth in Punjab.

He said that Punjab had grown at a lower pace than the other provinces in the last one decade. He said agriculture, the mainstay of Punjab’s economy, also performed poorly than other provinces.

He, however, pointed out that Punjab had less inequalities within the province than inequalities in other provinces. He said gas consum-ption in Punjab had declined by 30pc in the last four years while it had substantially increased in other provinces.

Punjab maintained a static development budget while other provinces increased it by 89pc.