THE economy will be a key factor in the next parliamentary elections owing to the economic squeeze people have been experiencing for the last four years because of spiking food and energy prices, rising unemployment on the back of sluggish growth, and electricity and gas shortages.

“We don’t know on what basis the people vote. Usually a large number of them vote for gaining some kind of access to the state (through the elected politicians) and political patronage. But the economy will certainly figure as a major factor in the elections,” Ali Cheema, political economist and a Lahore University of Management Sciences (LUMS) professor, told this scribe.

Analysts agree that economic issues like rise in prices and electricity and gas shortages directly affecting the quality of life are likely to influence and shape the voting pattern in the elections.

“The government’s handling of the economy will come under closer public scrutiny as the elections approach, the cost of living increases and jobs cuts increase in the private sector on the back of a slowing economy,” contended Shahid Zia, a Lahore-based financial analyst.

The worsening economic conditions are likely to affect the voting decisions in urban areas more prominently than in rural areas. In rural areas, the impact of economic downturn has, to some extent, been offset by the record crop price transfer in the last few years. Moreover, the impact of cash transfers to millions of poor households in the poorest regions of the country under the Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP) could also rescue the ruling Pakistan People’s Party.

The social protection programme could help the PPP offset the adverse impact of economic crunch on its sliding political fortunes, according to Cheema. “The BISP could be an advantage to the PPP in interior Sindh, Balochistan, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and south Punjab, all high poverty regions where most people have been selected for cash support,” he argued.

While the PPP stands to get a drubbing for its poor economic performance, the rival Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz is also unlikely to get away with its dismal performance in Punjab that constitutes almost 60 per cent of the country’s population and it’s economy.

The PPP, which is leading the coalitions at the centre as well as in Sindh and Balochistan and is a junior partner of the Awami National Party in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, is largely blamed for mismanaging the (macro) economy and its failure to address the growing energy shortages while the PML(N) has drawn a lot of flak lately for doing little to improve economic governance and implementing financial discipline in Punjab.

How will the economic squeeze affect the prospects of these two major contenders of power in Islamabad in the elections remains to be seen. Nevertheless, the realisation of public anger has led both the PPP and the PML(N) to shift their focus on devising ways to provide relief to the people over the next few months ahead of the elections.

Sensing growing public frustration with the deteriorating quality of life, the PPP-led coalition at the centre is struggling hard to buy some time to announce relief for the people in the budget for the next fiscal year in May ahead of the elections. Will it succeed in doing so, or more importantly, lasting that long in the face of increasing pressures from the military and the judiciary on memogate and NRO cases is a question mark.

“Elections the world over are fought mainly on two issues - economy and foreign affairs. Ours isn’t any exception,” said Sohail Warraich, a leading Lahore-based political commentator. “Both the PPP and the PML(N) realise this and are shifting their positions on economic and foreign affairs issues.”

On issues related to foreign affairs, Warraich pointed out, that the PPP had already brought about a major change in its stance on cooperation with the United States in war on terrors by stopping NATO supplies to Afghanistan in view of widespread anti-American public sentiments. On the economic front, he argued, the government, facing pressures from the military and the judiciary on the controversial memogate and NRO cases, was trying to gain some time for announcing relief for the people it has so far not been able to provide as well as launch some big projects in the next budget.

Similarly, he said, the PML(N) rejected the US assistance for various development projects in the province last summer, soon after it decided to bring pressure on the PPP-led coalition at the centre to hold early elections. Later, the PML(N) government in Punjab also started such schemes as distribution of free laptops amongst students, launched yellow cab scheme for the jobless youth, announced property ownership rights for the dwellers of Katchi abadis, built low-cost houses for the middle-income people and so on and so forth.

Yet, Warraich said, the belated actions of the PPP and the PML(N) were unlikely to help them win over many votes in the elections as the economic problems of people had multiplied manifold during the last four years and they were frustrated with both the parties.

Analysts believe that the deteriorating health of the economy is pushing the people towards Imran Khan’s Tehrik-i-Insaaf, dubbed to be the third emerging serious contender for power. “The public frustration with the economic squeeze and poor governance at the centre and in the provinces is the main driver behind the recent surge in the popularity of Imran amongst the urban middle-class youth and professionals like doctors, engineers, teachers and others,” said a political economist, who requested anonymity.

But he lamented even the former skipper did not have any solid plan to fix the economy except for a vague idea of luring the talent and money of the overseas Pakistanis. “Apart from giving rhetorical statements on economic issues, Imran is yet to come up with solid and practical plans as to how he intends to tame inflation, control fiscal deficit, tax the untaxed rich traders and farmers, address energy shortages, woo fresh investment in the industry, etc,” he asserted.

Many agree that the PPP and the PML(N) will try to divert the voters’ focus away from their handling of the economy in their respective jurisdictions to the issues like the creation of a Seraiki province out of Punjab or whipping up public sentiments on such foreign policy matters as relations with Washington and drone attacks. “Can these issues swamp the voters are yet not clear,” said Cheema.

Anyway, the next elections, in the words of Cheema, will be interesting in the sense that real challenges and issues facing the country and its people are expected to come to the surface.