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It's an unfortunate turn of phrase but, when England and Pakistan come together, all bets are off. In the rich history of this fixture, logic has been about as relevant as dignity and harmony. As we consider the forthcoming Test series, all logic suggests that it should verge on attritional, more Cannes than Hollywood. The pitches in Dubai and Abu Dhabi are expected to be slow and low, while both teams have a regular heartbeat and are playing disciplined, high-class cricket. That's what the book tells us.
The book also tells us that this is Pakistan v England. The Ashes and Pakistan v India are justly the most celebrated series in cricket, yet there is an argument that Pakistan v England has been the most interesting of all – consistent proof that, sometimes, opposites don't attract but act. These usually come together like nitroglycerin and gunpowder, but not far off. Some of the most exhilarating cricket ever seen has occurred in this fixture, and some of the most fractious.
Both sides will be keen to avoid any controversy, not least because they will have complete confidence in their current methodology. England are the best team in the world; Pakistan are the most improved. Under the serene, mature leadership of Misbah-ul-Haq, Pakistan have rebuilt from the spot-fixing trauma with exceptional dignity. A new team has been shaped almost in the image of Nasser Hussain's England. In a wider sense they had to stop the bleeding before they could consider anything grander, and in individual games they prefer to rule out defeat before considering victory.
This may be an atypical Pakistan side – or at least that is how it seems from afar - but as long as man is playing cricket, there will be members of a Pakistan side who control the hairs on the back of your neck. The masterful Saeed Ajmal was the highest wicket-taker in Test cricket in 2011 and has a good claim to being the best spinner in the world. He also claims to have a teesra to go with the doosra that so troubled England in 2010. Junaid Khan, who excelled in Twenty20 cricket for Lancashire in the last English summer, has shown enough to suggest he is worthy of carrying the torch of Pakistan left-arm quicks; and the unfulfilled genius of Umar Akmal could explode any time, even if there are legitimate concerns that Test cricket will always be too great a culture shock for one who grew up in the Twenty20 age.
If Pakistan's team is much changed from the 2010 series – at most, five of the team for the Test will have played in the last Test at Lord's 17 months ago – then England's is very similar. It is possible that they will have ten of the XI who played in that series, with Paul Collingwood the only definite absentee. Tim Bresnan was not part of the side against Pakistan in 2010 but has since become a vital player for England with his punchy, nerveless lower-order batting, and particularly his crafty seam bowling. He would have been an indefatigable figure with the ball, and is one of England's better exponents of reverse-swing. Still, the absence of Bresnan cannot puncture the justified mood of quiet confidence after a barely believable two years. For hardened sufferers of English cricket, it has been a bewildering tale of consistency, excellence and humble joy.
Mind you, so was the tale of 2005 (maybe with a dash less humility). Then, England celebrated a joyous summer after beating the best team in the world, and went to Pakistan apparently set for a period of dominant excellence. They lost the first Test at Multan after collapsing on a spellbinding last day, and never quite recovered. The precedent nags, because it is on the subcontinent that England have struggled most in recent times. They have conquered two Everests in the last 13 months – victory in Australia and an ascent to No1 in the world – but the subcontinent might be the biggest of all.
This is not a sub-continental series in name, but it should be in nature. If we exclude the relative formality of Tests away to Bangladesh, England have won only one of their last 17 Tests away to sub-continental sides, since the staggering and underrated victories in Pakistan and Sri Lanka in 2000-01. None of those 17 games were played under the remarkable Andy Flower, but then he was in charge for the 5-0 ODI defeat in India last year that was full of familiar failings when England on the sub-continent was a case of the irresistible force against the movable object.
The most notable was England's ability to play spin bowling. They have some very fine players of spin, most notably Kevin Pietersen, Ian Bell and Eoin Morgan, but the India series – although in a different format of the game – suggested that the capacity for a dramatic collective brainmelt still exists. The smartest money will surely be on Ajmal and Graeme Swann for top wicket-taker on each side: their duel will unofficially decide who is the best spinner in the world and may also determine the series. Last year, Ajmal took 50 Test wickets at 23.86 to Swann's 27 at 34.22, although Swann was invariably playing a selfless supporting role, so rampant were England's seamers.
For most of the last 20 years, never more so than when they last met, England v Pakistan was primarily about the fast bowlers. This time, it seems to be all about the slow bowlers, an appropriate state of affairs for what should be a more sedate affair. But when it's Pakistan v England, you'd be wise not to assume too much.
Rob Smyth is a freelance journalist based in the UK.
