NEW DELHI, July 8: India, saddled with large grain stocks, could become the world’s second largest rice exporter after Thailand if infrastructure problems are ironed out, traders and analysts said on Monday.

They said India was considering aggressive rice sales this year, as global prices turned competitive, to cut grain stocks which totalled 62 million tons on May 1.

“It could be touch and go and we may share the honours with Vietnam or edge it out in the rice export market provided infrastructure concerns are addressed,” said a Bombay-based commodities analyst.

Traders said the pace and direction of exports had been encouraging and the country should export between 3.5 to 4.0 million tons of rice in 2002-03 (April-March).

“Overall shipments in April-June, the first quarter of the financial year, have touched one million tons and our rice is cheaper than that of similar origin from Thailand or Vietnam,” said Sudip Basu of ITC Ltd., a leading rice trading firm.

Basu said Vietnam, the world’s second largest rice exporter, could sell about 3.5 million tons during the year, looking at their crop pattern and prevailing global prices.

“So, definitely, India will be in the reckoning for second place after Thailand,” said Basu.

The US Agriculture Department said in a report on Saturday that due to lower-than expected export supplies, Vietnam’s 2002 rice exports will be much lower, perhaps by 20-25 per cent, than the government’s target of 3.5 million tons.

The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) said in June that India was expected to export 3.6 million tons of rice in 2002, more than double the previous year while Vietnam was likely to maintain its export level at 3.5 million tons, the same as in 2000 and 2001.

Thailand is set to surpass its record 2001 exports by 100,000 tons, shipping some 7.6 million tons in 2002, FAO said.

Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra said on Saturday it had agreed in principle to join forces with Pakistan to boost rice prices. Thailand will invite India, China and Vietnam to join hands on rice exports, and make its price fair for farmers, he said, but gave no details.

However, traders feared India’s export plans could be derailed if infrastructure problems continue.—Reuters