ISLAMABAD, July 3: Pakistan may be in a position to export two million tons of wheat in 2002-03 out of huge carryover stock of 3.7 million tons from the previous year.

During the wheat year (May to May) 2001-02, the total quantity of wheat exported by Pakistan could not go beyond 5,65,000 tons — almost half of the quantity projected by the Government. Most of these exports went to Middle East and Afghanistan.

The wheat exported to Afghanistan, a source in the Ministry of Food & Agriculture (MINFAL) told Dawn here on Tuesday, was in fact purchased by the World Food Programme for distribution in that country.

The carryover stock of 3.7 million tons includes one million tons of strategic reserves. Pakistan thus has a surplus of around 2.7 million tons. Official quarters hope to export 2 million tons.

Accordingly, the government has offered generous incentives to exporters in the form of export rebate. The minimum export price fixed by the government is Rs8,250 per ton. The exporters will qualify for export rebate at the rate of Rs3,200 per ton.

According to the provisional estimates, the output of wheat this year will be 18.47 million tons as against the target of 20 million tons. Experts attribute the shortfall to a variety of factors— decline in acreage from 81,80,900 hectares in 2000-01 to 79,83,500 hectares in the current harvest, reduction in irrigation water, increase in cost of inputs, etc.

Fewer hectares devoted to wheat, they pointed out, were the farmer’s response to the low prices — ranging from Rs240 to Rs260 per 40 kg at which they had to dispose of their product in 2000-01.

In that year, the government had imposed restrictions on inter-district movement of wheat, thus dissociating itself from its own commitment implicit in the minimum support of Rs300 per 40 kg fixed by it. The commission agents and other traders, taking undue advantage of the situation, paid dismally low prices.

This year, however, Wheat Commissioner Dr Qadir Bux Baluch stated, the Government kept the movement of wheat free. Consequently, the prices received by the farmers ranged from Rs 270 to 280 per 40 kg.

According to the latest figures received by MINFAL, the total quantity of wheat procured in the two provinces, Punjab and Sindh, was 4.02 million tons. This includes 0.93 million tons procured by PASSCO. Out of the rest, the Sindh government procured 0.85 million tons.