BANGKOK: It is crunch time for Myanmar’s ruling generals. A visit by UN Special Envoy Razali Ismail this week could be the last chance for the military to show it is serious about political change in the impoverished and isolated country.

Diplomats says patience with the military rulers is running out after more than 18 months of secretive talks with opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, and unless it can prove the dialogue is more than just a sham, heavier sanctions are set to follow.

If Razali, who is due to arrive in Myanmar on Tuesday, fails to find signs that concrete progress is being made in the talks, the process could well unravel.

“This is probably the biggest test he has had,” said a senior Western diplomat in Yangon. “If he leaves Burma at the end of this visit with nothing, then it could be all over. People can’t keep giving the government the benefit of the doubt forever.”

Top of the international community’s demands is the release of 56-year-old Suu Kyi, winner of the 1991 Nobel Peace Prize, who has been held under house arrest for 18 months.

“Releasing her is the one thing they could do now that would give them some breathing space and keep the talks on track,” the diplomat said. “They can’t carry on claiming to be building democracy while Suu Kyi is in confinement.”

The talks between Suu Kyi and the junta were hailed by the international community as a breakthrough. Since they began, the government has released more than 200 political prisoners and ended its criticism of Suu Kyi in state media.

But more than 1,000 political prisoners are still in jail, and the government has been silent on what progress the talks have made — if any.

Suu Kyi, too, is silent. Her telephone line is cut, she cannot leave her house, and her visitors are screened by the military and limited to a handful of diplomats.

Activists in Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD), which won Myanmar’s last election in 1990 but was never allowed to take power, are increasingly restless over the lack of progress. So too are the country’s many ethnic parties, who fear they could be left out of any political settlement.

Diplomats say Razali may resign if this trip yields no progress. That would probably lead to stricter sanctions by the United States, Europe and Japan, pushing Myanmar’s tottering economy even deeper into crisis. The omens are not good ahead of Razali’s trip.

Razali’s latest visit was initially scheduled for last month, but the junta asked him to postpone it at the last minute, fuelling fears about the future of thethe dialogue with Suu Kyi.—Reuters