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YANGON: Myanmar’s ruling military faces stiffer sanctions from the West if the generals in Yangon do not free Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi and show concrete progress from talks with the pro-democracy opposition in coming weeks.
UN envoy Razali Ismail is due in Myanmar for a delayed visit in late April to give the talks he brokered a firm shove, knowing that a lack of movement now could see the opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) lose patience with the process.
Western countries, which already maintain sanctions on the impoverished Southeast Asian country, would then consider further tightening the economic screw on the military regime, which has ruled in various guises since 1962.
But a lack of alternatives to the talks means Myanmar could lurch into political limbo if Razali fails. Even Western diplomats say sanctions will do little to help topple the regime.
Since confidential talks between the junta and Suu Kyi began in late 2000, the government has freed over 250 political prisoners and let the NLD reopen Yangon offices.
But NLD leader Suu Kyi remains under house arrest and more than 1,500 political prisoners still languish in jail.
Only Suu Kyi’s freedom will show the generals mean business, say Western diplomats in Yangon and neighbouring Thailand.
“My hunch is if there’s not some kind of breakthrough with Aung San Suu Kyi by the Razali visit, the NLD will start reconsidering its position,” said a Yangon-based diplomat.
“Razali is careful not to seem like he’s making demands...but ultimately his patience will run out as well,” the diplomat said.
COUP PLOT RUSE: So far, the talks have centred on “confidence building”, particularly allowing the NLD to carry out political work, and have not yet touched on the country’s political future.
The NLD won democratic elections in 1990 but was never allowed to rule and several of its elected MPs were thrown into jail.
The military’s clampdown gave the NLD international sympathy, but isolated the party from the Myanmar public. The NLD hopes the talks will let it rebuild a political base so it can take power after a democratic transition.
But charismatic Suu Kyi, daughter of Myanmar independence hero Aung San, is so central to the NLD’s standing that the party is likely to forgo its limited gains if she is not freed.
Diplomats say if Razali’s trip yields nothing, the NLD will make a statement accusing the junta of foot-dragging, breaking an informal deal not to criticise the government while talks go on.
The top generals appear as reluctant as ever to loosen their vice-like grip on power and their vested business interests. Diplomats say last month’s crushing of an alleged coup was probably an elaborate ruse by the junta’s leader, Than Shwe, to root out potential opponents and strengthen his own power base.
Authorities swooped on the son-in-law and three grandsons of former dictator Ne Win, accusing them of plotting to topple the junta with the help of an astrologer using black magic.
The military also arrested at least three high-ranking officers and questioned more than 100 people with links to Ne Win, who ruled Myanmar with an iron fist from 1962 to 1988. Ne Win, now in his 90s, and his daughter Sandar Win are under house arrest.
A strengthened Than Shwe is unlikely to cede power but will talk to Suu Kyi in the hope of international legitimacy, which promises vital trade and investment, diplomats say.
TOUGHER SANCTIONS PREPARED: But the West has little patience for a regime it accuses of widespread human rights abuses and complicity in the drugs trade.
A US bill banning imports from Myanmar is pending in Congress and could be rushed through if the Bush administration loses faith in the talks.
European diplomats say public opinion in the European Union would force the grouping to follow the US lead and put more teeth into existing trade and aid restrictions.
But Myanmar’s economy, starved of funds because of a boycott by international financial institutions, is already in ruins and the ruling generals show no sign of weakening.
“Their only reflex, to preserve power and maintain influence, is to avoid people rioting,” said a European diplomat in Bangkok.
“Has the economy reached intolerance and the beginning of rioting? I suspect we’re not yet there,” he said.
The West’s hope is that a frustrated Razali will persuade his main backer and fellow countryman, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, to pressure the regime to change.
Mahathir smoothed Myanmar’s membership of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ (ASEAN) in 1997, and is believed to wield much influence in Yangon.—Reuters
