KARACHI, Dec 1: The Sindh's share in the national gross domestic product (GDP) has come down by almost one per cent in last five years mainly because of about 3 per cent fall in the share of industrial production , shrinking of wholesale and retail trade and of minor crops in the agriculture sector.

With this estimated one per cent fall in Sindh's share of the GDP, the population growth rate in the province outpaced the population growth in all other parts of the country and hence the drop in per capita income.

The gross regional product (GRP) of Sindh has been estimated at 28.6 per cent of the national GDP in 1998-99 which is reported to have come down to 27.5 per cent in 2002-03.

The GRP estimates have been derived from a report of the Applied Economics Research Centre (AERC) of the Karachi University, which was given to the Sindh government recently. The AERC in its report has depended entirely on the methodology of Dr Kaiser Bengali's dissertation "Regional Account of Pakistan".

According to this report, the GRP of Sindh increased from Rs782.31 billion in 1998-99 to more than one trillion rupees in 02-03 but its share in the national GDP dropped by 0.9 per cent.

The share of industrial production in the national industrial production came down from 29.7 per cent in 1998-99 to 26.8 per cent in 02-03. The large scale industry's share came down from 35 per cent in 98-99 to 30.4 per cent indicating that it failed to accommodate in jobs all those who entered the employment market during these five years.

The share of Sindh agriculture in the national agriculture growth is up by only 0.5 per cent from 26.4 per cent to 26.9 per cent in 02-03. Major crops share was 28.9 per cent in 98-99, which increased to 30.7 in 02-03. In sharp contrast, the share of minor crops came down from 14.1 per cent to 12.1 per cent, a sharp drop of two per cent.

Fishing has remained the main productive area of Sindh all along. But in last five years, its share too, in the national fish production came down to 72.4 per cent from 72.6 per cent. Main reason for a fall in Sindh's share of fishery growth is the rise in cost of fuel oil with which the fish boats operate.

Construction generated more than Rs 29 billion in 98-99 which went up to Rs36 billion in 02-03 but its share in the national construction activities is down by 0.1 per cent indicating that the business is shifting somewhere else from Karachi and other urban centres of Sindh.

The non-commodity sector that includes transport and communications, wholesale and retail trade, finance and insurance, ownership of dwellings, public administration and defence is showing declining trend in its share in the national production.

The report amply illustrates the shifting of economic growth from Sindh to other parts of the country. Or may be the bad governance and mismanagement is pushing Sindh behind the other provinces of the country.