KARACHI, July 16: The summer monsoon is likely to set in towards the end of the month. This was stated by the director-general of the Pakistan Meteorological Department, Dr Qamaruzzaman Chaudhury, while talking to Dawn on Wednesday.

In Pakistan, the summer monsoon begins in July and continues till Sept 15. Dr Chaudhury said that while heavy rains were currently lashing Punjab and other areas of the country, the summer monsoon in Karachi would not commence before July 17.

He added that according to a Met Office forecast, the city would not receive as much rain this year as it had received in 2003. The rain received by the city in July 2003 was the heaviest in the previous seven years.

Giving a breakdown of rainfall recorded at the airport observatory during the past seven years, PMD officials said that in July 1996 the observatory had received 12.8 millimetres of rain; in July 1997, 18.6 millimetres; in July 1998, 10 millimetres; in July 1999, 0.2 millimetres; in July 2000, nil; in July 2001, 73.6 millimetres; in July 2002, 0.3 millimetres; in July 2003, 125 millimetres.

They added that for the past 30 years the airport observatory and the Mauripur observatory had received an average rainfall of 85.5 millimetres and 92 millimetres, respectively, in the month of July.

Dr Chaudhury recalled that the country had experienced the longest spell of drought conditions from the end of 1998 to 2002. He said Karachi's record of rains showed that the city had received the maximum amount of rain in July 1967 which had totalled 429.3 millimetres.

According to PMD officials, at least three factors are responsible for the change in the weather pattern of Karachi. "First, the increase in the population. Second, the spread of the areas under population. Third, pollution emanating from the industrial localities of the city.

In Feb 1979, for instance, the city had received 96 millimetres of rain." They added that the PMD was conducting a detailed study about the changes in the weather pattern of the city.