ISLAMABAD, Aug 26: Num-bers are smiling on PPP co-chairman Asif Ali Zardari and he looks set for an easy sail through the presidential contest when voting takes place on Sept 6 unless the apple-cart gets upset at the last minute.

Given the party position and affiliations in the four provincial assemblies, the National Assembly and the Senate, if all members vote in accordance with the party lines, no candidate has the potential to create a hurdle in the way of Mr Zardari’s becoming the next president.

A projected outcome shows that Mr Zardari should secure 424 votes, against 150 by Saeeduz Zaman Siddiqui, who is backed by the PML-N, and 126 by PML-Q’s Senator Mushahid Hussain.

Although dozens of aspirants, including covering candidates, have submitted nomination papers, it is expected that the main contest will be between candidates of the three major parties.

The PPP and the PML-N have started campaign for their candidates and, according to sources, both have contacted the PML-Q.

However, statistics show that even if the two PML factions join hands, they cannot stop the PPP co-chairman from entering the presidency because their combined votes will not cross the 300-mark. The votes will be calculated according to a formula that gives equal representation to the provincial assemblies.

The Presidential Election Rules of 1988, devised in the light of Article 41 of the Constitution, provide for a 1,170-member electoral college of both houses of parliament and the four provincial assemblies. But the total number of votes, according to the formula, is 702.

As two seats are vacant in the National Assembly, the number of votes will be 700.

The winner must get a majority of the votes polled.

The electoral college comprises 342 members of the National Assembly, 100 of the Senate, 371 of the Punjab Assembly, 168 of the Sindh Assembly, 124 of the NWFP Assembly and 65 of the Balochistan Assembly.

As the Balochistan Assembly is the smallest house with 65 members, votes in the three other provincial assemblies are to be divided by 65: so 5.7 MPAs of Punjab, 2.58 of Sindh and 1.9 of the NWFP will be equivalent to one vote.

The PPP-led ruling coalition dominates all the houses, except the Senate and the Punjab Assembly. In the National Assembly, the coalition comprising the PPP, ANP, JUI-F and other smaller groups enjoys the support of 193 MNAs, compared to 147 opposition members.

In the Senate, the coalition has 44 members and the opposition 56 — 40 belonging to the PML-Q and the rest from the PML-N, JI and some independents.

The PPP and its allies have 112 MPAs in Punjab Assembly, 146 in Sindh Assembly, 99 in NWFP Assembly and 58 in Balochistan Assembly.

Mr Zardari is ahead of all other candidates in all the houses of the electoral college, except the Punjab Assembly where Mr Siddiqui is expected to get more votes.