OSLO: Arctic sea ice is unlikely to shrink this year below a 2007 record low, in a reprieve from the worst predictions of climate change even though new evidence confirms that a long-term thaw is under way, according to experts.

The 2007 record raised worries of a melt that could leave the North Pole without ice this year, threaten indigenous hunters and thaw ice vital for creatures such as polar bears.

It would also help open the Arctic to shipping and oil and gas firms.“Most likely there will not be a new record minimum ice year in the Arctic this September,” said Ola M. Johannessen of the Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Centre in west Norway.

Arctic sea ice area reaches an annual summer low in September but is about 1 million square kilometres bigger than at the same time in late July 2007 at about 6 million sq kms, an area almost as big as Australia.

But it is still far smaller than the average of recent decades. “It’s looking rather unlikely that we will beat the record sea ice minimum of 2007,” said Mark Serreze, a senior research fellow at the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC), adding that there could still be surprises.

“The North Pole is likely safe for at least this year,” he said. The NSIDC had suggested in May that it was “quite possible” that the pole could be ice-free this year.—Reuters