WASHINGTON: In the last century in the developed world, death’s face developed wrinkles. In 1900, one of death’s most common visages was that of a 5-year-old child struggling for breath, trying to clear his or her lungs of fluids caused by the sudden assault of pneumonia or perhaps influenza.

Today, death’s favorite weapon is a lethal blockage in one of the arteries of the heart, caused by plaques that form gradually during 70 years or more of life. What dramatic changes in the Grim Reaper’s handiwork can we expect in the next 50 years? Not as many as you might think.

Despite the great promise of biomedical research, many doctors say that most of us will continue to die from the same causes as today - chronic and complex diseases such as heart disease and cancer, often caused or complicated by our own poor lifestyle choices.

While each one of today’s major killers might claim a slightly lower percentage of lives, experts predict there will be a compensating increase in fatalities from diseases associated with age - including Alzheimer’s or infections that prey on the weakened immune systems of the elderly.

If new killers emerge to take a position on the Top 10 list, they are likely to be infectious diseases - perhaps new pathogens such as Ebola or ancient scourges such as tuberculosis retooled by nature to resist antibiotic treatments.

Epidemiologists note that it is difficult to find universally accepted standards in establishing a cause of death, a definition that often becomes murky given the physical deterioration that usually accompanies death at a very old age. They agree, however, that the major causes of death today have changed dramatically from killers of a century ago. Those causes also confront medical science with much more elusive targets.—Dawn/LAT-WP News Service (c) The Hartford Courant.