UP’s unsettled electoral dust

Published March 2, 2002

NEW DELHI: Although it is over a week since the results of the elections to the Uttar Pradesh state assembly were announced, there is yet no sign that the electoral dust has begun to settle down in Lucknow and that a new government would be in place.

This is because unlike in the three states where elections were simultaneously held, the new incumbent has been sworn in or is being installed in office.

That in Uttar Pradesh, the BJP which had been heading an unwieldy coalition of odd groups and had managed to survive its five-year term only to be voted out calls for an explanation which would indicate the road map for its coalition at the centre for its survival.

It would be erroneous to explain away its failure at the state level in the narrow terms of caste appeal or the reach of its communal horizon.

A close look at the voting pattern reveals that the two aspirants to power in UP, contesting the BJP, namely the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party, not only took care to protect their respective vote banks but also reached out to the other caste formations sufficiently to beat each other as well as the BJP.

In the end the final results tally was as follow: Samajwadi Party: 143, BJP: 88, BSP: 97 and others 47; while the Congress had to remain content with 26 seats.

In this configuration of the electorate, the BJP had only two options to begin with: either take the opposition seats or strike a power-sharing formula with the BSP.

It is yet to be seen what course the present governor of UP chooses to follow. But in the meanwhile, Mayawati’s principal concern is to prevent her followers from crossing over to Mulayam Singh.

She has chosen to keep herself totally aloof and has locked herself in a bungalow in communicado to the press and politicians. All this points to the rather unpleasant fact that the imbroglio in Uttar Pradesh will continue for some time.

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