RAWALPINDI, April 10: The total production of cereals in Pakistan this year has been forecast to be 33.5 million tons, slightly less than the yield achieved in 2006, according to the “Crops Prospects and Food Situation Report” issued by the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO).

The principle reason for the drop has been attributed to the projected decline in the production of coarse grain, which is expected to be 3.1 million tons this year as against 3.8 million tons in 2006.

However, the country is expected to again have a good winter wheat harvest with expected output of 22 million tons, close to last year’s record output reflecting the favourable weather during the winter and spring so far.

The production of rice (paddy), which was recorded at 8.1 million tons in 2006, is expected to be 8.4 million tons this year, almost close to 8.3 million tons harvested in 2005, says the FAO report.

The Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock expects a bumper crop this year with yield likely to touch the figure of 22.5 million tons.

Wheat crop in barani areas is also expected to be better than last year due to favourable weather conditions.

FAO’s first forecast for world cereal production in 2007 stands at a record 2,082 million tons (including rice in milled terms), four per cent more than that in 2006 and almost 10 million tons above the previous global high set in 2004.

The bulk of the increase is expected in maize, pushing aggregate coarse grains production up by 5.6 per cent to 1,033 million tons.

The first of the major 2007 coarse grain crops are already being harvested or are just approaching harvest in several countries around the globe.

Prospects for the winter grain crops mostly wheat that are developing throughout the main producing countries remain mostly favourable.

The world wheat harvest is also expected to increase significantly in 2007 with FAO’s first forecast indicating a growth of 4.8 per cent reaching the figure of about 626 million tons. In Asia, wheat output in 2007 is likely to remain close to last year’s level.

For rice, the paddy season is well advanced among countries located south of and along the equator, but is just starting in the northern hemisphere, where the bulk of the world’s rice is produced.

Based on the first and very tentative FAO forecast, global rice production in 2007 could rise marginally to 423 million tons (milled terms), about three million tons more than that in 2006.