ISLAMABAD, March 27: The Indus River System Authority on Tuesday estimated an ‘unprecedented’ 124 million acre feet (MAF) of water availability for Kharif 2007, raising hopes of bumper cash crops (cotton and rice) ahead.

“God willing, we will start Kharif on April 1, with unprecedented carryover storage of about 3.7 MAF and there will be no shortage of water for irrigation,” Irsa chairman Mohammad Khan Memon told Dawn after a meeting of the technical committee.

He said that the highest carryover into Kharif was recorded at 3.5 MAF in 1996.

“This is after eight years now that the Rabi season is closing without shortage on a positive note and Kharif is beginning with estimates of surplus availability,” he said.

Irsa had originally estimated about 14 per cent shortage for the Rabi season, but timely rains in February and March reduced it to zero and instead resulted in record carryover.

As a result, wheat output is estimated to be over 22.5 million tons.

Under the 1991 Water Apportionment Accord, a total of about 77 MAF of water is distributed among the provinces.

However, the total utilization capacity of provinces is no more than 71 MAF.

So whatever may be the provincial demands would be met because of surplus availability.

An Irsa official explained that about 11-12 MAF water would be stored in dams and another 15-20 MAF would be accounted for system losses during the season.

The remaining 23-24 MAF water would fall into the sea that too has no precedent in the last decade.

As such there would be enough water available at the rim stations to “meet the indented demands of the provinces as per the Water Accord 1991,” said an official statement.

The estimates were finalised with consensus from the provinces.

It said that the anticipated criteria based on the water availability estimated by the technical committee would be placed before the Irsa advisory committee on April 2, for finalisation.

The meeting presided over by the Irsa chairman was attended by Irsa members and representatives of Wadpa and provincial irrigation departments. There was no representation from Balochistan.

The committee showed satisfaction on the present reservoir position and noted that recent rains resulted in surplus water.

Informed sources said that when the technical committee reached a consensus on surplus water availability, the representatives from Sindh called for distribution of provincial shares under para-2 of the water accord.

Representatives of the meeting told Dawn that the wheat harvesting was in advance stages in Sindh and the dry season over the next fortnight would be very crucial both in Sindh and Punjab to enable the farmers to harvest their produce without losses.Rains could badly affect wheat output.

The meeting was informed that total storage in dams stood at 3.5 MAF on Tuesday compared with 0.3 MAF of the same period last year.

Flows in Indus at Tarbela were recorded at 29, 600 cusec against outflow of 20,000 cusec.

Jhelum flows at Mangla were recorded at 52,958 cusec compared with 32,958 cusec outflow.

Likewise, inflows and outflows at Chashma were recorded at 67,994 cusec and 59,820 cusec.

In this way, a total of about 51,000 cusec water was stored on Tuesday.

Water storage level at Tarbela stood at 1427.30 feet on Tuesday against last year’s 1374.85 feet and overall average of 1379.48.

Similarly, water level at Mangla stood at 1147.75 feet on Tuesday against last year’s 1,068 feet and overall average of 1069.50 feet.