BEIJING: China’s population will peak at 1.5 billion people in 2033, posing huge challenges to social stability, the economy, the environment and resource allocation, a new government report said.

Besides handling an increase of 200 million more people from the current population of 1.3 billion, China must manage huge numbers of migrant workers, a widening gender imbalance and an ageing population, the report said.

“Our work on population and family planning is huge and will not come easy,” said the Strategic Research Report on National Population Development, issued late on Thursday by the State Population and Family Planning Commission.

“We are presently witnessing a trend in a rebound in the low birth rate which means we need to create a new work plan, new mechanisms and methods to maintain a low birth rate.” China’s working population of people between the ages of 15 and 64 will increase from 860 million in 2000 to 1.01 billion in 2016, posing a huge challenge for the government to provide jobs, education and social services, the report said.

In the next 20 years, up to 300 million Chinese will also leave rural areas and descend on towns and cities to live and work, it said.

“Our country is currently undergoing the largest human movement and migration in history,” the report said.

“We will have to effectively alleviate the growing population pressures on the society, the economy, resources and the environment.” Although the population -- already the world’s biggest -- is expected to peak in 2033 and start to decline slightly, other pressures will linger, it warned.

China’s population aged over 60 will jump from the current 143 million to 430 million by 2040, meaning the country will need to step up efforts to build a social security and retirement system.

A growing gender imbalance will result in 30 million men of marrying age unable to find a wife by 2020, the report said.

“The increasing difficulties men face finding wives may lead to social instability,” it added.

In 2005, 118 baby boys were born for every 100 girls, a ratio that has become more unbalanced during China’s 20 years of economic reform.

The imbalance has even reached 130 boys to 100 girls in some prosperous areas like Guangdong province in the nation’s south, it said.

The imbalance is largely rooted in China’s traditional views which favour boys over girls thanks largely to men continuing to be seen as the family bread winner, it said.

Choosing the sex of the child has become more common as prospective parents in the cities, who face financial penalties and social stigma if they have more than one child, frequently abort their baby once tests show it is a girl.—AFP