The current ‘no war, no peace’ situation in the US-Iran conflict is unsustainable. While the immediate fear of a new US-Israeli strike on Iran — and a greater regional conflagration — may have passed, thanks mainly to the drubbing the Republicans received in the American midterm elections, the Gulf will not return to normal unless there is stable long-term peace.

True to form, President Donald Trump has been oscillating between claiming that more attacks are not needed and issuing new threats. After talking to the Qatari prime minister, he said that the US would maintain the “status quo” vis-à-vis Iran, while his secretary of state has asserted that economic pressure on Tehran will continue. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, meanwhile, has slammed America’s “diplomacy through threats”.

The fact is that the US and Israel have failed to subdue Iran on the battlefield, and while the economic sanctions are hurting the Iranians, there are few signs that the pressure will make them yield to America. If anything, the feeling in Tehran is that if Iran is made to endure economic pain, the entire region, and in fact the wider international community, will feel it as well, as the over eight-month blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has shown.

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