INSURGENCIES militarise society and spawn a conflict economy that empowers splinter insurgent groups with their own set of interests and objectives. These militant groups thrive in a governance vacuum as well as the ideological confusion in post-conflict societies. The TTP is amongst the classic examples of insurgency-begotten militancy and terrorism. Afghanistan is a quintessential case study of an insurgency-wracked nation that has given rise to other insurgencies and waves of terrorism.
Afghanistan’s 10-year anti-Soviet insurgency achieved success but spawned another decade of internecine conflict that gave space to terrorist entities and subsequent international intervention against Al Qaeda terrorists operating from that country. Pakistan’s action against terrorist entities elicited an irate response from these violent groups in the former Federally Administered Tribal Areas (now merged districts of KP), leading to a series of military operations from 2004 to 2017, driving the terrorists towards Afghanistan.
After the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, the Taliban regime occupied Kabul and reneged on all its pledges made in the Doha Agreement and introduced a brutal, oppressive regime where there was no place for minorities, women, and non-Taliban Afghans. Soon after assuming power, the Taliban regime gave free rein to terrorist entities like the TTP and freed hardened criminals and terrorists from jails.
After the US withdrawal, Pakistan extended an olive branch to the Taliban regime, offering humanitarian aid, trade facilities, and economic integration. But despite continual positive engagement, the Taliban did not abide by their counterterrorism commitments. Terrorist entities like TTP were given free rein to operate against Pakistan from secure sanctuaries in Afghanistan. When Pakistan started tightening its noose against these terrorists, their leadership was reportedly taken to Kabul’s Green Zone and hid amongst the civilian population.
Insurgencies in Afghanistan have created an ecosystem of terror.
At present, a blend of over 20 terrorist entities is operating under the benign gaze of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. The Taliban are extremely adept at denialism and selling their anti-IS-K credentials. The reality is different, however, as terrorist entities like IS-K with a transnational agenda are operating under an entente cordiale between them and the Taliban regime. For many foreign powers, the Doha Agreement has been reduced to just two points — women’s rights and education — relegating inclusivity to the backburner due to the international community’s predilection for appeasing the Taliban.
Pakistan is paying a huge price for this indulgence of the Taliban. After the US withdrawal, terrorist attacks in Pakistan surged manifold. Thousands have been killed and injured in terrorist attacks since. The two-faced Taliban have perfected the art of denying complicity in terrorism to curry favour with foreign donors. They are being facilitated in this endeavour by hostile foreign intelligence agencies that wish to keep the region destabilised for their geopolitical interests.
The Taliban regime is thriving on an illicit economy where narco-trafficking, smuggling and extortion are being sponsored under official patronage, with the Taliban warlords having stakes in each criminal enterprise.
The weapons left by Nato and US forces are being sold to terrorist entities. American and Nato forces, after the 2021 withdrawal, left behind weapons and equipment worth $7.12 billion, out of which large quantities were handed over or sold to terrorist entities like the TTP by the Taliban. Terrorist groups including the TTP and BLA have used these weapons against Pakistan under the patronage of the Taliban re-gime.
According to the April 2025 report of the US Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, the TTP accessed former Afghan army weapons, either transferred by Taliban authorities or acquired through the black market. Similar confirmation has been made by the UN Security Council Monitoring Team.
By 2025, Pakistan’s security forces had recovered 293 US-made weapons and other gear from eliminated terrorists. Even a 2025 Washington Post investigation traced serial numbers of at least 63 weapons seized in Pakistan from terrorists to weapons supplied by the US to Afghan forces before 2021.
Earlier insurgencies in Afghanistan birthed an ecosystem of terror, which is now being exported. The flow of arms to terrorist entities like the TTP and BLA from Afghanistan under the patronage of the Afghan Taliban regime is a taste of things to come for the entire international community, whose attention at present is consumed mostly by the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.
The writer is a security analyst with a PhD degree from NUST.
Published in Dawn, November 7th, 2026
