• Approval hovers around 38pc, near record low; disapproval rating stands at 59pc
• Economic rating hits 26pc low as 65pc Americans blame his policies for high cost of living
• Below 50pc approval historically costs ruling party 32 to 35 House seats
• Public hostility nears Nixon’s Watergate level
WASHINGTON: US President Donald Trump is heading into Tuesday’s midterm elections with historically weak public support, as economic dissatisfaction, persistent inflation, rising fuel prices and the conflict with Iran threaten Republican prospects in closely contested congressional races.
Trump’s approval rating recently fell to a record low of 36.3 per cent before recovering slightly to 38.4pc, according to Silver Bulletin’s polling average. His disapproval rating stands at approximately 59pc.
The depth of dissatisfaction is striking: only 21pc of Americans strongly approve of his performance, compared with nearly 49pc who strongly disapprove.
Historical comparisons suggest Trump is entering the midterms in one of the weakest positions among recent presidents.
Polling averages from approximately 90 days before previous midterm elections put his current approval at around 34pc, compared with 36pc for George W. Bush before the 2006 elections, 37pc for Joe Biden before the 2022 midterms and 40pc for Trump before the 2018 elections.
Barack Obama stood at 44pc before the 2014 midterms and 47pc before the 2010 elections, while Bill Clinton had 45pc before the 1994 midterms.
The historical precedents are sobering for Republicans. Bush’s party lost control of both congressional chambers in 2006, Democrats captured the house in 2018 during Trump’s first presidency, and Republicans suffered substantial losses in 2022 under Biden.
The 1994 elections brought a sweeping Republican victory over Clinton’s Democrats.
Midterms traditionally serve as a referendum on the sitting president, whose party frequently loses congressional seats. When presidential approval falls below 50pc, the incumbent’s party has historically lost an average of 32 to 35 House seats, although results vary with political circumstances and the number of competitive districts.
The economy appears to be Trump’s greatest vulnerability. His return to the White House was driven partly by voter frustration over inflation under Biden and his promises to lower the cost of living. Those promises have since become a source of political embarrassment.
Only 17pc of US adults approve of Trump’s handling of the cost of living, according to an Associated Press-NORC poll reported by CNN.
Approval of his overall economic performance has fallen to 26pc, a new low. Meanwhile, 65pc of Americans blame Trump’s policies, rather than factors beyond his control, for persistently high costs.
CNN has described the failure to address affordability as a major political liability, given its importance to Trump’s electoral appeal. Inflation and rising fuel prices have further complicated his position, while the conflict with Iran has added to economic uncertainty.
Fifty Plus One, which tracks historical polling averages, says Trump’s current standing is worse than Bush’s before the 2006 midterms, when Republicans lost control of Congress.
It also says public sentiment is approaching the levels of hostility toward Richard Nixon during the Watergate scandal in the months before his resignation in 1974.
Trump has not, however, reached the lowest presidential approval rating in the historical comparisons. That distinction belongs to Harry S. Truman, whose popularity fell to approximately 27 per cent before the 1946 midterms.
Published in Dawn, November 3rd, 2026
