Experts warn of growing nuclear risks amid changing global order

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ISLAMABAD: Experts on Tuesday warned that the global nuclear order was facing mounting pressure from great-power competition, disruptive technologies and weakening arms-control mechanisms.

They were speaking at the two-day ‘Islamabad Non-Proliferation Conference 2026’ hosted by the Strategic Vision Institute.

The conference included seven sessions on deterrence, escalation risks, global nuclear order and challenges to the non-proliferation regime.

Retired Lt Gen Sarfraz Sattar, adviser to the National Command Authority, said the nuclear age was witnessing a shift from concerns over non-state actors acquiring nuclear weapons to the risks arising from interstate conflict and great-power rivalry.

He described South Asia as a nuclear flashpoint and expressed concern over growing conventional and nuclear capabilities in the region, saying the nuclear non-use taboo appeared to be weakening.

In his keynote address, adviser development, NCA, retired Lt Gen Khalid Ahmed Kidwai said Pakistan’s full spectrum deterrence was fundamentally defensive and aimed at preventing aggression and preserving strategic stability in South Asia.

He said the May 2025 India-Pakistan conflict had demonstrated the role of conventional and nuclear deterrence in limiting escalation.

Mr Kidwai also raised concerns over India’s nuclear submarine deployments and the absence of pre-notification of its submarine-launched ballistic missile tests, saying such developments could increase risks of miscalculation and nuclear escalation.

Published in Dawn, October 21st, 2026

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