ISLAMABAD: The World Bank on Wednesday rated its two loan programmes in Pakistan, worth around $670 million, as ‘moderately satisfactory’ with ‘substantial risk’. The programmes are intended to support macroeconomic stability, improve service delivery and increase the tax-to-GDP ratio to 15pc in five years.

In its public disclosure, the Washington-based lending agency rated the overall implementation of the $700 million financing for the Pakistan Public Resources for Inclusive Development — Multiphase Programmatic Approach (PRID-MPA) as ‘moderately satisfactory’. It assigned a substantial risk rating to the loan, which became effective on June 19, 2025. One of the programme’s key objectives is to increase Pakistan’s tax-to-GDP ratio from 12.3pc in June 2025 to 15pc by June 2030.

The rating is based on high political and governance risk, and moderate to substantial risks across macroeconomic, sector strategies and policies, institutional capacity, fiduciary, and environmental and social standards. Overall risks have been described as ‘substantial’.

The MPA operation became effective on May 14, and an advance disbursement of $164.52 million was made on June 29. Despite these risks, the bank noted strong progress across most of the disbursement-linked indicators, “reflecting continued momentum in the reform programme”. It said the government was operationalising the technical assistance component and related implementation arrangements, following refinements to project activities and cost allocations.

Washington-based lender flags substantial risks to $670 million programmes

The two sides — the government and the World Bank — are now working closely to advance preparatory activities and mitigate the impact of delays in approval timelines on fulfilment of effectiveness conditions and reform implementation.

The World Bank has reported to the government for correction the delays on account of the constitution of the governing council of the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and the appointment of the chief statistician — a key lapse in programme conditions.

Under this, the chief statistician position should not remain vacant during the programme implementation, and an existing government official may not be formally delegated the role of chief statistician. The condition has been delayed because the position has been vacant since Sept 24, 2026, the bank said.

The bank has also assigned a moderate-to-substantial risk rating to the $70m Connected Punjab Programme for political, governance, macroeconomic, and fiduciary reasons, effective from the start of the current fiscal year and running until June 2031.

This is despite the bank conceding that the programme benefited from “strong ownership at the highest levels of the Government of Punjab”.

The programme focuses on three mutually reinforcing results areas: broadband access and connectivity; digital service delivery and artificial intelligence (AI) readiness; and enhanced cashless transactions.

The Punjab Information Technology Board (PITB) has secured provincial government approval, demonstrating strong institutional preparedness. Next steps include advancing the AI Oversight Committee, Data Governance Framework, personal data protection strategy, and cybersecurity strategy as foundations for responsible AI adoption.

The PRID-MPA was approved by the WB board of directors on Dec 19, 2025, while describing it as an innovative, national programme supporting federal and provincial reforms to mobilise domestic revenue and enhance spending quality and leverage data and digital tools for improved services.

Published in Dawn, October 15th, 2026