Cotton production moderates amid heatwave concerns
LAHORE: A sharp mid-season deceleration in national cotton arrivals has raised serious concerns across the country’s textile and ginning sectors. Early hopes for a bumper harvest have faded after a heatwave caused the cotton bolls to open prematurely.
Data released by the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA) showed total arrivals reaching 3.208 million bales as of Sept 30, reflecting a slim 5.39 per cent increase from the same period last year. The marginal gain marks a dramatic downturn from just a month ago, when favourable weather had pushed output 27pc ahead of last year’s pace and raised hopes for a 10 to 15pc overall harvest increase.
According to Cotton Ginners Forum Chairman Ihsanul Haq, unusually high temperatures in recent weeks caused cotton bolls to open prematurely. This initially suggested higher yields per acre, but production later plummeted.
During the Sept 16-30 fortnight, arrival figures fell short of expectations, reaching 820,000 bales compared to projected estimates of 1.1m bales.
Regionally, Punjab received 1.214m bales (up 6.91pc) while Sindh recorded 1.993m bales (up 4.48pc).
Sajid Mahmood of the Central Cotton Research Institute warns that the output dip, compounded by emerging threats of pink bollworm infestation and rising lint contamination complaints, could push domestic raw cotton prices higher and boost reliance on imports.
However, the sector expects a reduction in undocumented trading — which previously accounted for 1.5 to 2m bales annually — due to strict digital invoicing enforcement by the FBR.
The domestic deceleration mirrors broader global trends, with the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) trimming its global production forecast for the 2026-27 crop year to 25.94 million tonnes, down 3.8pc from 26.98mt in 2025-26.
Meanwhile, a major discrepancy persists between provincial reporting bodies, says Mr Haq. PCGA estimates Punjab’s output at 1.215m bales, whereas the Punjab Crop Reporting Service reports 2.492m bales — a variance of nearly 100pc.
Published in Dawn, October 4th, 2026
