Brent crude rises above $100 a barrel as Middle East conflict intensifies

Published
0
Storage tanks are seen at Marathon Petroleum's Los Angeles Refinery, which processes domestic & imported crude oil in Carson, California, US, on March 11, 2022. —Reuters/File
Storage tanks are seen at Marathon Petroleum's Los Angeles Refinery, which processes domestic & imported crude oil in Carson, California, US, on March 11, 2022. —Reuters/File

Benchmark Brent crude oil futures rose past $100 a barrel on Wednesday, hitting a more than six-week high and breaching the symbolic threshold for the first time since July 24 as intensifying conflict in the Middle East heightened concerns about oil flows from the region.

Brent crude futures were up $2.01, or 2.05 per cent, at $99.93 a barrel by 01:02pm PKT, after earlier touching $100.19, while US West Texas Intermediate crude was up $1.49, or 1.60pc, at $94.52 a barrel.

Brent crude prices have risen by a quarter since early last month as hopes fade for a permanent resolution to the six-month-old US-Iran conflict.

Since the Iran war began on February 28, Brent has surged as high as $126.41 a barrel, a peak reached on April 30.

This week, attacks by Houthis on Saudi energy facilities set oil installations ablaze, threatening a significant expansion of the conflict.

The attacks also threaten crude shipments via the Red Sea, which has been a key alternative route to the crucial Strait of Hormuz, where oil flows have been severely curtailed since the February 28 start of the Iran war.

Supply risks mount

“Market participants appear to be pricing in a more prolonged conflict in the Middle East as well as the risk that the latest escalation in military strikes disrupts oil flows from the Middle East,” said Hamad Hussain, senior climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics.

“The key risk is whether the recent attacks on oil tankers lead to fewer ship-to-ship transfers taking place in the Gulf of Oman, which have so far played a key role in providing oil to global markets and keeping a lid on prices.”

A growing number of banks, including Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and HSBC, have raised their crude price forecasts in recent days.

In the week before a resumption in fighting on August 30, roughly 8 million to 9m bpd had flowed through Hormuz, double the previous week’s volume, according to Rystad Energy’s Chief Economist Claudio Galimberti, although more recently it had fallen below 2 million bpd.

“I think the market is trying to treat this rise in energy prices as a one-off. It’s not. This is structural. It’s not going away, and it’s part of what I would argue as a security premium. And it’s only going to get bigger,” said Jeffrey Currie, co-chairman at Abaxx Markets.

While non-Opec oil producers including the United States, Canada and Guyana have ramped up output, the International Energy Agency said last month it expected global oil supply would fall this year by 4.3 million bpd, or about 4pc.

Follow Dawn Business on X, LinkedIn, Instagram and Facebook for insights on business, finance and tech from Pakistan and across the world.

Opinion

Editorial

Breaking the cycle
Updated 24 Oct, 2026

Breaking the cycle

Workers’ remittances have helped the current account and rebuilt reserves, and continued external borrowing has bought time.
Gaza starvation
24 Oct, 2026

Gaza starvation

ON account of funding cuts and Israeli cruelty, the threat of famine once again looms over the occupied Gaza Strip....
Harvesting rackets
24 Oct, 2026

Harvesting rackets

ORGAN vending rarely leaves the spotlight. The FIA and the Human Organ Transplantation Authority recently took five...
Nuclear uncertainty
Updated 23 Oct, 2026

Nuclear uncertainty

With matters frozen in the political and diplomatic spheres, it will take military-to-military engagement to prevent miscalculation in the strategic sphere.
Auto illusion
Updated 23 Oct, 2026

Auto illusion

PAKISTAN’S draft auto policy 2026-31 is ambitious in its targets and directionless in its strategy. It promises...
Two crimes
23 Oct, 2026

Two crimes

THE senseless killing of a teenager by his employers in Multan is a crime that deserves unqualified condemnation. It...