The growing frustration of farmer organisations, particularly in Punjab, is not merely a dispute over the price of wheat. It is the latest manifestation of a deeper agrarian crisis.

At the centre of the growers’ anger is the wheat market. The government’s retreat from large-scale procurement has left farmers increasingly dependent on private buyers at a time when production costs have risen sharply. Farmers complain that fertiliser, electricity, diesel, machinery and labour have become substantially more expensive while the prices they receive for their produce have often failed to cover the cost of production.

The problem, however, extends well beyond wheat. Cotton, sugarcane, potatoes and other major crops, too, have suffered from combinations of poor yields, weather shocks, pest attacks, market gluts, delayed payments and policy uncertainty. Expensive irrigation and agricultural inputs have further eroded farm profitability, particularly for small and medium-sized growers.

The distress visible in the fields is also showing up in Pakistan’s external accounts. According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, food imports surged by 11.66 per cent to $9.15 billion in FY26, from $8.2bn a year earlier. At the same time, food exports collapsed by 29.49pc to $5.02bn, compared with $7.12bn in FY25. The food trade deficit, which stood at roughly $1.08bn in FY25, widened by about 283pc — in a single year — to $4.13bn in FY26.

Pakistan remains largely a surplus-driven agricultural exporter rather than a systematic producer for specific international markets

Palm oil imports alone cost the country $3.8bn in FY26, accounting for more than 41pc of the total food import bill. Import volumes increased by 8.36pc to 3.48 million tonnes. For decades, inadequate attention has been paid to developing domestic oilseed production. Canola, sunflower and mustard have the potential to reduce Pakistan’s dependence on imported edible oil, but their cultivation has not been commercialised on the scale required.

Meanwhile, sugar imports jumped from just 3,508 tonnes in FY25 to 309,545 tonnes in FY26. In value terms, the import bill increased almost five-fold to $175m. This was not merely a consequence of nature or global commodity markets. It also reflected weaknesses in domestic supply management, crop forecasting and policy intervention.

When a country with a large sugarcane-growing sector opens the import tap to meet domestic requirements, the question is not simply why sugar was imported. The more important question is why domestic production and market management failed to provide a reliable supply at competitive prices.

The other side of the food equation is even more troubling: Pakistan is not only importing more food; it is earning substantially less from food exports. Rice, the country’s flagship agricultural export, illustrates the problem. Rice export earnings fell 31pc to $2.29bn in FY26 from $3.35bn in FY25.

Pakistan’s rice exporters faced intense international competition, particularly after India’s return to global markets following the easing of its export restrictions. Non-basmati rice bore the brunt, with exports falling sharply, while Basmati rice earnings remained comparatively resilient at around $843m.

There were some bright spots. Meat exports grew by 7.1pc to $530m and fish and fish preparations’ exports rose about 3.6pc to $482.08m. But these gains were insufficient to offset the broader decline. Vegetable exports plunged by 55.72pc, while fruit exports remained broadly stagnant.

The underlying weakness is structural. Pakistan remains largely a surplus-driven agricultural exporter. It exports commodities when domestic production exceeds immediate domestic requirements rather than producing them systematically for specific international markets.

That model creates volatility rather than reliability. Rising diesel, electricity and fertiliser costs have further weakened competitiveness. Currency depreciation provides only limited relief to exporters when a substantial portion of agricultural inputs are imported.

Pakistan has long struggled with stagnant crop yields, outdated cultivation practices, weak seed technology and inadequate mechanisation. Severe post-harvest losses compound the problem. A substantial proportion of perishable produce is lost before reaching consumers due to inadequate storage, transportation, and cold-chain infrastructure. According to an Asian Development Bank (ADB) report released in December 2024, overall post-harvest losses in Pakistan range from 20pc to 40pc, depending on the crop category.

Low productivity creates a vicious circle. Farmers earn inadequate returns and therefore have less capacity to invest in better seeds, machinery, irrigation and storage. Low investment keeps yields low. Low yields restrict domestic supply and exportable surpluses. Supply shortages increase dependence on imports, while higher costs eventually hit consumers.

While the farmer complains that he is not receiving a remunerative price, the consumer complains that food has become increasingly expensive. Between the two stands a long and inefficient supply chain involving middlemen, transporters, wholesalers, processors and retailers.

The country cannot solve this problem through periodic imports, administrative price controls or temporary subsidies alone. The priority must be to make agriculture economically viable and internationally competitive.

This requires a sustained effort to commercialise oilseed farming, introduce high-yield and climate-resilient seeds, improve irrigation efficiency, expand mechanisation and strengthen agricultural research and extension services.

The government must also develop modern storage and cold-chain networks to reduce post-harvest losses. On the export side, incentives should increasingly favour agro-processing, quality certification, sanitary and phytosanitary compliance and value-added food products rather than the export of largely unprocessed commodities.

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, August 17th, 2026