RAWALPINDI, July 10: Pakistan is likely to become the world’s fourth most populous country in the year 2050 having a population of 305 million, with the current population growth rate of 2.1 per cent per annum, reveals the World Population Chart issued by the United Nations Population Division.

The country is already the sixth most populous country in the world with a population of 158 million, and the high annual population growth remains a cause of concern for government and its planners, as Pakistan joins the international community to commemorate World Population Day on July 11.

The Population Policy of Pakistan aims at achieving population stabilisation by 2020 through completion of the demographic transition including reductions in fertility and mortality rates.

Government officials have identified population as the single most pressing issue in the country’s development. Pakistan still has an unacceptably high rate of growth compared to other developing countries, it says.

Latest official figures says while mortality has been decreasing and fertility has shown a significant decline over the recent years, the crude death rate (CDR) of Pakistan is estimated at 8.2 (per thousand) in 2005-06. The decline in mortality rate is due to the elimination of epidemic diseases and improvement in medical services, it says. However, despite a considerable decline in the total mortality, infant mortality still remained high at 77 per thousand live births in 2005. The major reasons for this high rate of infant and child mortality are diarrhoea and pneumonia. Maternal mortality ratio ranges from 350-400 per hundred thousand births per year leading to about 17,000 newborn babies being born motherless, the figures reveal.

The maternal health situation is cause of concern. The maternal mortality ratio is estimated to be 500 deaths per 100,000 births. Over 75 per cent of deliveries take place at home and skilled personnel attend only about 20 per cent of them. The development of the first National Maternal Health Policy is under way. At the same time, population and reproductive health issues have been given significant weight in Pakistan’s Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper.

According to the Ministry of Population Welfare, over one- third of Pakistanis are living in poverty. The impact of population growth on poverty is obvious, since poorer families, especially women and marginalised groups bear the burden of a large number of children with much fewer resources further adding to the spiral of poverty and deterioration in the status of women.