US intelligence agencies are studying how Iran would respond if President Donald Trump were to declare a unilateral victory in the two-month-old war that has killed thousands and become a political liability for the White House, Reuters reports, citing two US officials and a person familiar with the matter.
The intelligence community is analysing the question along with others at the request of senior administration officials. The goal is to understand the implications of Trump potentially pulling back from a conflict that some officials and advisers worry could contribute to deep Republican losses at the midterm elections later this year, according to the sources.
The sources have spoken on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence matters.
It is not clear when the intelligence community will complete its work, but it has previously analysed the likely reaction of Iran’s leaders to a US declaration of victory.
In the days following the initial bombing campaign in February, intelligence agencies assessed that if Trump were to declare victory and the US drew down its forces in the region, Iran would likely view it as a win, one of the sources says.
If Trump instead said the US had won but maintained a heavy troop presence, Iran would likely see it as a negotiating tactic, but not one that would necessarily lead to the end of the war, the source adds.
The CIA and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence have declined to comment.
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