Back to an abyss?
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THEY came, they talked, they went away without a deal. The impasse on even the two most burning issues — a longer ceasefire and opening the Strait of Hormuz — is truly bad news for all. The impasse may still break. But even uncertainty is bad for the global economy, moving back from one abyss only to inch towards another. US obduracy, as always, was the key cause. A lesser one was the large agenda, with both foes coming with big teams to discuss all issues in one go. An initial focus on these two burning issues, among others, and a plan for future talks may have been more apt. Given especially the many past failures, lower-ranking officials on both sides and the mediators perhaps misread how much they must shrink gaps via prior backchannel talks before inviting big guns like J.D. Vance.
Will President Donald Trump resume war, as he keeps threatening? Despite rising global multipolarity, there is yet no global check on the US when it comes to its endless, senseless wars. But its internal multipolarity — the mismatch between its war aims and political and economic constraints at home are reflected in falling market indices and Trump’s ratings — may stop even an impulsive Trump stung by his failure to defeat Iran despite weeks of inhuman bombing. But it’s naive to think that vicious ‘USraeli’ hawks will give up their evil designs forever. They may wait to let the global economy recover and find a way to blunt the two aces Iran used in the war to trump Trump — closing Hormuz and hitting US regional allies hard — before attacking it. But open war may not happen for a while despite failed talks.
That leaves the issue of reopening the strait. Trump, in a typical early morning impulsive rant, says he will impose a naval blockade on Iran until it opens it. But that is like us sealing Islamabad totally when agitators threaten to do so partially. It may yet dawn on him that this illegal step will hit his home constraints hard. China, the EU and regional states may now scramble to get Iran to open the strait via carrot and stick. So, as I said earlier, realpolitik rather than talks may shape future events.
If these two issues get resolved thus, the pressure on Iran and the US to have talks on deeper issues may even fall. Some naively hope they may just have a rethink and resume talks. But serious results may only accrue if their incentive structures change. Talks on key issues failed mainly due to mistrust as their sequential resolution over time involves many stages where one foe takes a step alone before the other reciprocates. Rich states like Europe, China, Russia, Japan and the Gulf countries can help resolve mistrust by using carrots and sticks to give guarantees at each stage requiring a leap of faith by one enemy alone. Game-theory security experts can help map mutually acceptable guarantees for each such step which has an action-reaction time gap.
‘USraeli’ hawks are not likely to give up their evil designs.
International relations gurus say that only states with clout can strategically shape mediation while states with only trust, good ties and access can just relay messages. This is why rich states must enter the fray as mediators as the role of Pakistan, Egypt and Turkiye in relaying messages faithfully is insufficient in this huge crisis.
We must also review our role and constraints, given our own problems that may arise if talks fail again and we get more deeply sucked into Gulf politics or if our rulers lose their domestic focus due to a prolonged mediation role. Oman, Qatar, Turkiye and Switzerland have all facilitated talks between the two earlier. So, it’s wrong to think we are the best or the only state able to play the limited role of relaying messages given the recently struck personal ties between our senior state officials and Trump. But personal ties can’t substitute for state clout. A globally critical role for us may also harm our human rights, democracy and civilian sway situation and cement our habit of chasing geostrategic rents instead of adopting sound economic progress as under some past regimes.
Finally, Iran has won global applause for bravely staring down two vicious, evil states. Its resolve remains unbent, but the human, leadership, economic and military cost was still high and it will take time for it to recoup its losses. It survived the onslaught largely due to the strong support ordinary Iranians gave the state. Its rulers know its foes will work overtime to blunt its two aces and that they will continue to need unflinching public support. Giving all Iranians their democratic rights will bolster their own ability to deal with future intrigues by not letting foes exploit internal fissures.
The writer has a PhD degree in political economy from the University of California, Berkeley, and 25 years of grassroots to senior-level experience across 50 countries.
Published in Dawn, April 14th, 2026
