All eyes are on Islamabad as the capital braces to mediate one of the most consequential, high-stakes peace negotiations since the culmination of the Second World War.

For one, the United States must reckon with the fact that the Iran that sits across the table in Islamabad on Saturday is not the Iran that walked into Geneva in February.

Iran has managed to retain its nuclear infrastructure and enriched uranium stockpiles. More consequentially, however, Tehran has credibly demonstrated its ability to choke global energy flows and hold the world economy hostage, altering the strategic calculus of its adversaries.

Hence, the US will arrive at the capital militarily undefeated, but it will be Iran that will boast the stronger hand to dictate the terms of peace. It is ultimately this paradox that will loom largest over the mediation process in Islamabad.

Even if an agreement is produced, there will be no real guarantee that Israeli non-compliance will not unravel it. The US will have to answer the overarching question of whether it is negotiating on behalf of itself, or Israel.

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