ISLAMABAD: Despite having sufficient water resources provided by nature, Pakistan’s irrigation network is expected to cause a 15-35 per cent shortage to agriculture, mainly during the ongoing kharif crop sowing season, largely due to delays in dam construction, it emerged on Tuesday.

The Advisory Committee of the Indus River System Authority (Irsa) on Tuesday “unanimously approved the system shortfall as 15pc for April and 35pc for early kharif (April- June 10), subject to review in the first week of May. The shortfall for late kharif was approved at 5pc,” said an official statement.

This announcement was made despite the fact that carryover storage in reservoirs on April 7, at 3.3 million acre-feet (MAF), was the highest in the past 6-7 years, and overall water availability for the season was estimated to be better than in the last 10 years. Part of the approved shortfall, insiders said, was caused by operational limitations arising from delays in project execution at Tarbela dam and partly by vested interests of the provincial operators benefiting from shortages.

Informed sources at the Ministry of Water Resources stated that the kharif season commenced with a 2.3 MAF carryover in dams as of April 1. This increased by a further 1MAF due to the ongoing rainy spell and the anticipated impact of the flood in the Kabul River. Consequently, no province was prepared at this time to submit requests for irrigation indents, given the sufficient availability within the system.

15-35pc irrigation shortage expected despite abundance

The advisory committee was informed that Tunnel-5 (T5) of Tarbela dam, planned for completion in June 2025, has been delayed to August 2027. However, this would not become a constraint if T4 and the Low Level Outlet (LLO) are completed by the revised deadline of May, as promised by Wapda.

The committee considered the anticipated water availability for kharif (April-September) and projected total rim-station inflows at 103.30 MAF, including 24.48 MAF for early kharif and 78.81 MAF for late kharif, based on agreed probability scenarios.

System losses for the Indus Zone were assessed at 25pc for April and 35pc for the period May 1 to June 10, subject to review in the first week of May based on actual reach-wise observations.

Published in Dawn, April 8th, 2026