LAHORE: The Pakistani cotton market has witnessed an unprecedented surge as prices reached a new record high of Rs19,500 per maund, marking a sharp increase of Rs1,500 in just one week.

This bullish trend, which has pushed the cotton prices up by a total of Rs3,000 over the last fortnight, is being driven by regional instability and international market volatility.

With the ongoing Gulf conflict effectively suspending cotton imports and international prices for May further jumping 3.20 percent to 69.46 cents per pound, the domestic supply chain is under significant pressure.

This price hike has extended to Phutti (seed cotton) as well, the rate of which rose by Rs1,000 to reach Rs9,300 per 40kg, while some transactions for one-month deferred payments have already been reported as high as Rs20,000 per maund.

While these high prices could incentivise a massive increase in cotton cultivation for the 2025-26 and 2026-27seasons, several hurdles remain. Unexpected climate shifts, including temperature drops and light rainfall across key cotton zones, have temporarily stalled sowing activities. However, if the momentum continues, a bumper crop could significantly reduce Pakistan’s reliance on imported raw cotton and edible oil, ultimately stabilising the country’s foreign exchange reserves.

Despite the optimistic price outlook, a major policy shift regarding seed “rights” is causing worry within the agriculture sector. Authorities have recently decided to sell exclusive rights for certified seed varieties of major crops, including cotton, wheat, and rice, to specific companies or consortia.

Chairman of the Cotton Ginners Forum, Ihsanul Haq, warns that this move could create monopoly for a few large players, potentially sidelining over 500 existing seed companies and leaving farmers with a shortage of high-quality, certified seeds.

He argues that if the seeds supply becomes restricted due to a lack of competition or poor marketing by a single entity, farmers may revert to using unverified, low-yield seeds, which would drastically undermine the national crop production.

To safeguard the economy, the forum is urging the government to move away from exclusive rights in favour of a volume-based royalty model. Under such a system, any seed company would be allowed to produce and sell government-approved varieties provided they pay a fixed fee per tonne to the relevant authorities.

This approach would ensure that the best seed quality reaches the maximum number of farmers, driving up per-acre yields and ensuring that the current market boom translates into long-term economic stability for the country.

Published in Dawn, March 30th, 2026