• Analysis suggests malfunction or irresponsible interception; traces weapon’s path to US military battery in the kingdom
• Manama, Washington fail to provide evidence of Iranian drone role; locals unwilling to speak due to fear of reprisals
DUBAI: An American-operated Patriot air defence battery likely fired the missile that caused a pre-dawn explosion injuring dozens of civilians in Bahrain 10 days into a war on Iran, according to an analysis by academic researchers.
The analysis contradicts the initial narrative from Washington and its Gulf ally, which blamed an Iranian drone attack for the March 9 blast that tore through homes in the Mahazza neighbourhood on Sitra island. The kingdom said 32 people were injured.
However, the Bahraini government on Saturday acknowledged to Reuters for the first time that a Patriot missile was involved. In a statement, a government spokesperson said the missile successfully intercepted an Iranian drone mid-air, saving lives.
“The damage and injuries sustained were not a result of a direct impact to the ground of either the Patriot interceptor or the Iranian drone,” the spokesperson said. Neither Bahrain nor Washington has provided evidence that an Iranian drone was involved.
The analysis contradicting the official account comes from researchers at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey.
Research associates Sam Lair and Michael Duitsman and Professor Jeffrey Lewis concluded with “moderate-to-high confidence” that the missile was launched from a US Patriot battery located about seven kilometres southwest of the explosion site. Their findings were based on a review of open-source visuals and commercial satellite imagery.
Two target-analysis experts and one Patriot system missile researcher who examined the conclusions for Reuters found no reason to dispute them.
Wes Bryant, a former senior targeting adviser at the Pentagon, called the researchers’ conclusions “pretty undeniable”.
Key to the analysis was a geolocated video showing a missile roaring at low altitude before angling downward, followed by a detonation. Researchers traced the missile’s trajectory from the blast site back to what satellite imagery shows is a US Patriot battery in Riffa, which has been hosted there since 2009.
Its features, such as protective walls, differ from those of Bahrain-operated batteries, which the nation began using only in 2024.
The researchers suggested two scenarios. One, a reckless but successful interception of a low-flying drone over a residential area. The second, which the analysis states is more likely, is that the explosion was from the Patriot’s own warhead and unexpended propellant detonating.
The report noted that blast damage was concentrated along four streets, consistent with a mid-air missile explosion.
On March 9, US Central Command denied reports of a failed Patriot, stating an Iranian drone struck the area. Bahrain’s spokesperson called claims of a Patriot “malfunction or misfiring” to be “factually incorrect”.
Asked for comment, the Pentagon referred questions to Central Command, which did not immediately reply.
A senior US official, responding to questions sent to the White House, said the US was “crushing Iran’s ability to shoot or produce drones and missiles” but did not answer specific questions about the Patriot. Reuters attempted to contact witnesses, but several people declined to speak, citing fear of reprisals, which Human Rights Watch has documented for social media posts during the war.
Published in Dawn, March 23rd, 2026
