Spiralling crisis

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WITH Iran standing at the very edge of a dangerous precipice, regional powers must step up and do what they can in a diplomatic capacity to defuse the country’s increasingly tense stand-off with the US. Communication channels between the two countries were previously open, even while leaders were exchanging barbs and threatening each other with annihilation. But the American president on Tuesday announced he was suspending all engagement with Tehran, and it seems regional actors may have to step in as mediators. Another war in this neighbourhood will trigger serious consequences for regional stability and should, therefore, be avoided at all costs. There is no denying that the crisis within Iran is very real: its people seem aggrieved and fed up with the austerity imposed on them due to the policies adopted by their rulers. However, that crisis must be allowed to reach an internal resolution. Adding external pressure to the mix will only have deadly results.

The Iranian government’s decision to impose a near-complete communications blackout amidst increasing chaos and violence has made matters much more difficult to understand for those observing from afar. It has been impossible to gauge whether the Iranian people just want better economic governance or to go in a radically different political direction. Things could have been much less complicated had Israel and the US, both of whom bombed Iran last summer, not gotten involved. Their public and unapologetic backing of the protesters and incitements to overthrow the government has drawn a knee-jerk response from Tehran and allowed it to treat the protesters as a national security threat. In the ensuing crackdown, countless Iranians have suffered deadly violence. To make matters worse, it now seems as if the US is keen on making things more difficult for Iranians. It has announced a new 25pc tariff on any country “doing business” with Iran.

The tariff will not only worsen Iranian suffering but will also trigger global economic consequences. Tehran’s major trading partners include China, India, the UAE, Turkiye and Pakistan. It exports oil to many others. In capitals around the world, policymakers are calculating the impact of the new tariff and considering their options. Simultaneously, global oil prices have jumped to the highest levels since November following the tariff announcement. Whether or not it is framed as such, what is happening in Iran has now become many countries’ problem. It should, therefore, be addressed as such, with all stakeholders aiming to arrive at a resolution that protects the interests of the Iranian people without adding to their existing troubles. Decades of sanctions have wreaked untold misery on them. The least they deserve is to be allowed to negotiate their political future with dignity and agency.

Published in Dawn, January 14th, 2026

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