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ISLAMABAD: The government on Wednesday projected continued positive momentum for the national economy in the coming months, attributing the outlook to robust industrial growth, enhanced governance, accelerated digitalisation, and sound macroeconomic management.
In its December Economic Update and Outlook, the Ministry of Finance (MoF) stated that Pakistan’s economic outlook remains positive, supported by sustained industrial growth and continued momentum in key sectors including textiles, automobiles, cement, and food processing.
Inflation was projected to remain moderate, in the range of 5.5-6.5 per cent in December, primarily reflecting base effect. CPI inflation recorded at 6.1pc year-on-year in November 2025 as compared to 6.2pc in the preceding month and 4.9pc in November 2024.
On MoM basis, it increased by 0.4pc as compared to an increase of 1.8pc in the previous month and an increase of 0.5pc in November 2024.
To support the Rabi harvest target 2025-26, the government has fixed a wheat production target of 29.68 million tonnes from a cultivated area of 9.65m hectares. To meet this production target, coordinated measures are being implemented by the government to ensure the timely provision of key agricultural inputs like agricultural credit, certified seeds, fertilisers and mechanisation support.
Prudent fiscal management led to a 1pc of GDP fiscal surplus in July-October FY26, up from 0.4pc last year, with a 7.7pc rise in federal receipts and a 4.8pc drop in spending. A primary surplus of 2.7pc of GDP was maintained.
In November 2025, the current account posted a $100m surplus, but July-Nov FY26 saw an $812m deficit vs a $503m surplus last year. Exports fell by 3.12pc to $12.8b in 5MFY26, while imports rose 11.1pc to $25.6b, widening the trade deficit to $2.8b. Services exports grew 16.7pc to $3.8b in 5MFY26; imports rose 12.8pc to $5.1b. IT exports jumped 18.5pc to $1.8b during the months under review.
It further said remittances rose 9.3pc to $16.1b in 5MFY26, mainly from Saudi Arabia, and UAE. According to the report, workers’ remittances have maintained their upward trajectory while foreign exchange reserves recorded highest since March 2022.
Moreover, on the back of successful IMF review, the government has received $1.2 billion under IMF Extended Fund Facility and Resilience & Sustainability Facility. The fiscal position also remained encouraging. These positive developments are providing immediate support to the economy while creating spillovers that are likely to underpin long-term growth prospects.
It said that the outlook for Pakistan’s economy remained positive, underpinned by sustained growth in industrial activity with continued momentum in key sectors.
LSM was expected to maintain its trajectory of recovery, supported by ongoing structural reforms aimed at enhancing industrial competitiveness.
Published in Dawn, January 1st, 2026
