ONE of three militants, clad in a chadar, attacked the FC Headquarters, Peshawar, on a cold, foggy, dusty morning. It set me thinking about the relationship between weather and terrorism. Weather may impact the frequency, tactics, planning, location, logistics and intensity of terrorism and CT operations. Globally, terrorists attack in favourable weather, adjusting strategies according to logistics, mobility and visibility. Drought or floods can spawn conditions for radicalisation; dry weather enables ambushes, IEDs and coordinated attacks.

Militant movement increases in mountainous areas in summer. Melting snows in parts of KP (including former Fata) and Balochistan aid militants, especially along the western border, to regroup. Better weather enhances visibility and aids infiltration and attacks. In winter, militants’ mobility is hindered in hilly areas; they are either dormant or target urban centres, opting especially for extortion and kidnapping for ransom, or collaborating with organised criminal groups in arms and narcotics peddling. In summer, they prefer to attack at night or early morning.

IS in Iraq used dust storms to evade drone surveillance and air strikes. In Nigeria, in the dry season, Boko Haram intensified attacks due to better mobility. Muddy terrain in rains reduced mobility for the military and militants. Flooded roads and jungle paths during monsoons in Sri Lanka restricted large-scale operations by the military and LTTE. Poor visibility limited surveillance. Africa sees fewer attacks in militancy-infested areas in rains, but militants often regroup or train then. Militancy surges in dry weather. LTTE launched major attacks between March and August. In stormy season, it limited its coastal movement and sea-based attacks. It hid landmines in rainy weather, while the military would delay offensives to avoid logistical disruption. Weather influences attacks’ timing but not militants’ aims.

Militancy surges in dry weather.

For terrorists, low visibility in fog hinders surveillance, camera performance, border and coastline security, and drone and helicopter observation. Tourism and public events increase in good weather and terrorists may strike where there are more people. Extreme weather drives indoor online activity, potentially increasing recruitment by extremists. Such weather disrupts terrorist acts but also destroys infrastructure, requiring instant state relief. Terrorists can exploit LEAs’ relief efforts. By providing relief, militants try to win victims’ trust. Displacement may fuel desperation in youth, making them prone to extreme narratives. When climate events destroy livelihoods, groups like Boko Haram amplify the message: ‘join us and get food, protection, or revenge’. Climate change triggers more poverty, displacement and economic stress, and reduces local administrative capacity, which extremists exploit to propagate their narrative especially in IDP camps. Hence, improved coordination among LEAs, emergency services and community is needed during and after natural disasters.

Seasonal migration impacts militants’ recruitment drives. Nomads migrate in winter looking for work or shelter. At these times, the youth, particularly may be more vulnerable and recruited by militants. To curb this requires nomads’ registration by special branches and UCs. Disaster preparedness must be improved to prevent militants from exploiting humanitarian gaps. Deradicalisation programmes must be integrated into emergency relief. Financial resources of humanitarian groups must be scrutinised. Official grants can be given in disasters to those working legally.

Drought too can fuel migration and social alienation. Militant gr­­oups may offer incentives and play on people’s deprivation to instil radical ideas. If states don’t respond well, militants try to fill the vacuum with extremist ideologies. To keep comfortable, militants improvise with locally available gear for protection and camouflage. Insulated layered clothing is used in winter to prevent frostbite. In summer, lightweight wear prevents heat strokes. Footwear is critical and militants use boots with waterproof lining in snow-covered areas, canvas shoes for deserts, and ventilated boots with drainage holes in forests. Thermal blankets, rain ponchos and gloves help resist weather effects.

In severe weather, protecting vital installations like airports, power plants, communication towers, etc, demands more security. LEAs’ CT strategies must integrate preparedness and climate adaptation; use climate data to forecast higher terrorist activity periods; improve disaster response to curb militant exploitation; reduce recruitment risks; and collaborate with other agencies, including LGs. This will help forecast resource needs and aid better operation planning.

The writer is author of Pakistan: In Between Extremism and Peace.

X: @alibabakhel

Published in Dawn, December 12th, 2025