A FEW years ago, while hiking near the Masherbrum Glacier in Gilgit-Baltistan’s Hushe Valley, we witnessed a haunting sight: large chunks of crystal-clear ice believed to be a century old were floating downstream. This melting, driven by global warming, is stripping away snowcaps that took generations to form. It was a heartbreaking reminder of a crisis unfolding across South Asia.

The Hindu Kush-Himalaya and Tibetan Plateau — often called the Third Pole — hosts over 54,000 glaciers, holding around 10 trillion tons of water. These feed 10 major rivers, including the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra, sustaining nearly two billion people. While glacier melt contributes under 10 per cent of total river flow in most systems, it becomes vital in dry seasons. The Indus, however, is uniquely glacier-dependent, with 40-60pc of its flow coming from snow and ice. If global emissions remain unchecked, up to 75pc of glacier mass may vanish by 2100 — posing serious risks to agriculture, hydropower and water security.

Pakistan, with over 7,000 glaciers, faces a dual threat: glacial retreat and glacial lake outburst floods. Warming temperatures have formed more than 3,000 glacial lakes — 33 deemed dangerous. Over seven million people in the north live under constant risk.

Meanwhile, water availability across South Asia is under immense stress. India has about 1,500 billion cubic meters of renewable water, while Pakistan has just 250 BCM. Both rely heavily on overexploited aquifers. Since the 1970s, uncontrolled tube well irrigation has caused groundwater levels to fall alarmingly.

At the heart of the crisis lies political dysfunction.

The hydrological cycle has become increasingly erratic. While the total water volume hasn’t changed dramatically, its timing and distribution have. Unpredictable monsoons and glacier melt are triggering more frequent floods and droughts.

Over the past century, South Asia’s population has grown sixfold — from 300m to 1.8bn — while cultivable land has only tripled. Per capita water availability has plunged from 5,000 cubic meters per year in 1950 to just 850 in Pakistan. By 2050, it is projected to drop to the critical level of 500 cubic meters. Pollution, poor planning, and inefficiency plague the region’s water systems.

Pakistan’s Indus Basin Irrigation System — one of the world’s largest — is deeply inefficient, losing up to 60pc of water to seepage, evaporation, theft and neglect. Pakistan still relies on wasteful flood irrigation. Pricing reforms are absent, and most of the canal infrastructure remains as it was in colonial times.

As water grows scarcer, crop yields stagnate, salinisation worsens, and disputes arise. The government must modernise irrigation, promote efficient technologies, introduce rational water pricing and implement smart crop zoning.

Poor crop choices also intensify the crisis. Water-hungry crops like sugarcane, rice and cotton consume 2,000–10,000 litres per kilogram — depleting aquifers and exacerbating salinity. Drought-resistant crops and micro-irrigation for fruit and vegetables must be promoted.

Human interventions over the last 70 years — dams, deforestation, urban sprawl, pollution, overfishing — have degraded river ecosystems. Pakistan urgently needs ecosystem-based adaptation: reforest degraded lands, restore natural river pathways, build green flood barriers and safeguard vulnerable communities.

At the heart of the crisis lies political dysfunction. The 1991 Water Accord was meant to ensure fair provincial water-sharing, but enfo­rcement is weak. Pro­jects like the Kala­bagh dam remain stuck in gridlock due to mistrust and ecological concerns. Any unilateral diversions — such as the recent six-canal project — risk deepening divisions. Water governance must be depoliticised and made transparent under a strengthened Council of Common Interests.

Internationally, sabre-rattling over the Indus Waters Treaty is more noise than policy. Over 80pc of Indus flows originate within Pakistan, and India’s ability to disrupt them is limited. But weaponising water is a dangerous idea. South Asian countries — India, Pakistan, China and Bangladesh — must ratify the UN Water Convention to reduce future tensions.

This region holds enormous potential, but only if it avoids ecological collapse. Climate change is a far greater threat than any rival nation.

This is not just a problem, it is a national emergency.

Pakistan must declare a water emergency, draft a national action plan, and ratify international water treaties. Massive investments are needed to upgrade infrastructure, plug leakages and recharge aquifers. No crop should be grown unless it serves food security and fits our water limits.

The time to act is now.

The writer is president, WWF-Pakistan.

Published in Dawn, June 13th, 2025