THIS is with reference to the article ‘Can India still go to war with Pakistan?’ (May 4). In the wake of recent happenings, the question now has to be: can India escalate the war with Pakistan? The said article cited Prussian general Carl von Clausewitz. Indeed, Clausewitz’s treatise, On War, which was written mostly after the Napoleonic wars between 1816 and 1830, and published posthumously in 1832, remains arguably the most widely read and quoted work in military circles around the world.

There are three allied issues. The first is comparison of the present Indian political leadership with previous leaders handling a similar situation on their side. Though the toxic mindset impregnated with the Hindutva ideology of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) is an issue, it is the individual personality of Narendra Modi, the incumbent Indian prime minister that comes into play each time. His hubris and a psychologically damaged brain led him to a senseless overreach in other countries. To take out targets, he stretched his claws to Pakistan, Canada, the United States and Europe. He has now gone on to unilaterally suspend Indus Waters Treaty, followed by the recent attacks in the early hours of May 7.

During the 2008 Mumbai attacks, a statesman-like behaviour by Manmohan Singh was on full display. The Indian military was desperate for revenge, but, exercising restraint, Manmohan held it back. The Indian media was also relatively less aggressive unlike now when it is riding roughshod.

The second point is the China factor. Never in the history of its relation with Pakistan has China ever come out so clearly and loudly in support of former’s sovereignty and integrity as it has done this time. Henceforward, Kashmir is bound to be a quadrilateral dispute involving Pakistan, India, China and the Kashmiris.

China is now surely a great power by any reckoning. It has deftly checkmated the US in what was Donald Trump’s rather ill-conceived tariff war. China today has the world’s largest navy numerically, and it is fully prepared to take on the US in the western Pacific. The world is no more a unipolar entity.

Given this speciifc background, the third logical point is: where do we go from here? India’s bellicosity may result in China initiating grey zone activities, like cyberattacks, along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). Will India then keep the pot boiling on two fronts? How likely is it to achieve politico-military objectives (purpose and aim) with its forces stretched and diluted? It is really hard to imagine where such repeated Indian brinkmanship will lead the region to.

Pakistan’s response to India’s latest provocations has been stern and logical. According to Pakistan Army’s doctrine 2023, the progressing trends likely to affect the character of war would include a technologically driven battlefield, autonomous systems based on artificial intelligence (AI), and degradation of forces due to precision, accuracy and lethality of modern weapon systems. The chances of any miscalculation are distinctly low.

In the West, the common man shudders on hearing the words ‘nuclear war’, but in the subcontinent, nuclear sabre-rattling is perceived as a verbal T20 encounter. Both sides need to educate their populations on how the day would look like following a 15 kiloton nuclear explosion in any of the urban centres.

Cdr (retd) Muhammad Azam Khan
Lahore

Published in Dawn, May 9th, 2025