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WHAT if we could see beneath the earth’s surface, like a doctor reading an MRI? We’d see vast aquifers — entire underground reservoirs. Just beneath Rawalpindi and Islamabad, one expert estimates, there’s more water than in Mangla or Tarbela dams. Yet, we only see the shallow surface lakes: Rawal, Simli, and Khanpur.
Below the dry beds of the Sutlej and Ravi lie vast underground water reserves stretching hundreds of kilometres. These are not assumptions — they are a geological phenomenon. Water experts Hassan Abbas and Asghar Hussain have estimated that Pakistan’s riverine aquifers hold more than 400 million acre-feet of fresh water, equal to three years’ flow of the Indus river. Although the Ravi and Sutlej have lost much of their surface flow after the Indus Waters Treaty, the underground reserves beneath their beds are filled with fresh water which gets replenished by floods and rainfall.
What is needed now is a detailed scientific study to confirm the size of these reserves and how much water can be sustainably drawn. Just last month, the World Bank approved new funding to support Pakistan’s climate resilience. Part of this funding should be directed towards these studies. The results must feed directly into policymaking and help attract private investment.
If confirmed, these hidden reserves could open up real opportunities for private-sector-led development. Water extraction contracts can be designed based on the study’s results, legally allowing companies to build and operate modern water-harvesting systems such as horizontal collector wells and solar-powered tube wells. Because this set-up is decentralised, pipelines — not canals — will be used to move the water.
These contracts must be bankable to help private investors raise funds. They will be governed by strict rules for licensing, environmental protection, and sustainable extraction. And all of this can be included in the scope of the study.
The hidden water reserves could open up real opportunities.
In our context, you need to first solve the water, then solve the land. In choosing Cholistan, we were putting the cart before the horse. Now that a wise political decision has been taken to rethink that project perhaps it is best to drop that idea, and instead, develop arid land in districts skirting the dry riverbeds — Bahawalnagar, Pakpattan, Okara, Kasur, Sheikhupura, Nankana Sahib, and Faisalabad. Here the land development concession should include one-time cost of installing drip and sprinkler systems which are linked via pipeline to water harvesting infrastructure. Water extraction, irrigation and corporate farming can be unbundled and offered to multiple enterprises through a public-private partnership framework.
This is how FDI is mobilised — not through vague incentives, but through clear, interlinked frameworks where water, land, irrigation and agri-supply chains operate in synergy. If we want meaningful investment, this is the path. Fragmented efforts rarely deliver results.
This model is next generation from the one across our border, where the ambitious Indira Gandhi Canal project in India’s Thar desert presents a cautionary tale. While it has undeniably brought irrigation to some arid zones in the upper reaches, it has also caused soil salinity. And as it cuts into the desert a good amount of water is lost through seepage and evaporation. Our focus on subterranean harvesting with drip and solar power offers an opportunity to evolve a more sustainable and localised model, learning directly from the successes and shortcomings of our neighbour’s endeavour.
A decade ago, this was unthinkable. High pumping costs made groundwater extraction uneconomical. Now, cheap solar energy and efficient irrigation — delivering water directly to root zones via soil moisture sensors — have changed everything. Canal water, with its silt, can’t run through these systems. This shift must replace outdated flood irrigation and canal reliance.
As India and Pakistan continue to confront the realities of a warming subcontinent, both will need to transition towards decentralised, sustainable water solutions. The Indus Basin is a shared resource. Instead of contesting control, both nations should shift focus to nurturing their shared rivers, especially by ensuring adequate flows into the Indus Delta to preserve the integrity of the basin. For Pakistan the riverine reserves beneath the Sutlej and Ravi represent an asset critical to food security and climate resilience. Their sustainable use demands a new water economy that is built on science, structured private investment, renewable energy, and modern irrigation practices.
The roadmap exists. The resource exists. The technology exists. It is now up to the state to act with resolve, with clarity, and with urgency.
The writer is a business strategist and entrepreneur.
Published in Dawn, April 28th, 2025
