India’s recent suspension of the Indus Water Treaty marks a grave turning point in regional politics and underscores a critical imperative for Pakistan: to resolve its internal political squabbles with utmost urgency. At a time when external pressures threaten to compromise access to shared water resources, domestic discord, such as the infighting over the Cholistan canal project, only deepened Pakistan’s vulnerability. The nation can ill afford to be divided over water policy when the very lifeline of its people is at stake as a matter of national survival.

It’s a welcome relief that, following the meeting between Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and PPP chairman Bilawal Bhutto, the government has paused canal construction pending consensus in the Council of Common Interests (CCI).

The Cholistan canal project sparked an unnecessary political row, distracting from Pakistan’s real existential threats: a looming water crisis, crumbling irrigation systems, and escalating climate change. Ironically, experts question the logic of building canals in a desert — an impractical and unsustainable venture.

A slew of measures costing a fraction of mega‑canal budgets can be implemented immediately and unite provinces

The federal government agreed to open talks with the PPP over the contentious Cholistan canal project after tensions within the ruling coalition came to a breaking point. What began as a technical debate morphed into a political standoff, with Pakistan emerging as the ultimate casualty.

Launched under the Green Pakistan Initiative in early 2025, the project relies on sporadic floodwaters while overlooking Sindh’s chronic water shortages, evident in Kotri Barrage’s declining average flows (14.035 million acre-feet [MAF] vs 26.807 MAF pre-1999). As of March 13, Tarbela’s reservoir was barely above dead level, and the Indus River System Authority (Irsa) has warned of up to a 35 per cent water shortfall in the final stretch of the Rabi season.

Sindh’s leadership accused the federal government of unilaterally undermining the 1991 Water Apportionment Accord. In response, PMLN leaders invoked Punjab’s traditional role as the federation’s “elder brother,” offering vague assurances that all “technical hurdles” will be “addressed and removed.”

Yet by bypassing the Council of Common Interests, the federal leadership only intensified provincial distrust. When the Cholistan canal was inaugurated, few anticipated the risk that it could fracture Pakistan’s delicate federal balance. Within weeks, the Sindh Assembly passed a unanimous resolution condemning the project for violating the Water Accord and endangering Sindh’s lifeblood.

While political actors clash, Pakistan as a nation is losing ground in the most existential battle of our times — water security

Bilawal BhuttoZardari has threatened to withdraw PPP support from the federal coalition. PTI MNAs joined Sindh’s protest with a National Assembly resolution as highways were blockaded, courts boycotted, and Sindh’s commerce halted.

Rather than convene the CCI — the constitutional forum for interprovincial disputes — the federal government opted for an Irsa certificate in January 2024, approved by a 4:1 majority that excluded Sindh’s dissenting member. The Sindh High Court has asked the federal government to appoint a federal member from Sindh in the Irsa, after a petition was filed in the court that appointments made to the Irsa were not being made in accordance with the law.

However, Prime Minister’s Adviser Rana Sanaullah dismissed objections as mere “technical issues” to be “addressed and removed,” while Punjab Information Minister Azma Bokhari chided critics, insisting “Punjab has always played the role of an ‘elder brother’ and has never been unjust”. Such brinkmanship has politicised a vital watersharing question, turning what should be a policy dialogue into constitutional brinksmanship.

While political actors clash, Pakistan as a nation is losing ground in the most existential battle of our times — water security. Classified among the countries facing extremely high water stress, Pakistan withdraws more than 60pc of its available resources annually, far exceeding sustainable thresholds. A UNWater report places Central and Southern Asia, home to Pakistan, among regions with water stress above 25pc. The Global Climate Risk Index ranks Pakistan as the world’s fifth most climatevulnerable country, warning that rising temperatures and erratic monsoons threaten agriculture, livelihoods, and coastal communities.

Pakistan’s irrigation network — the world’s largest contiguous system of canals — loses an estimated 30–40pc of diverted water to seepage and evaporation due to poor maintenance and silting. The dilapidated minor canals forced farmers to rely on costly tubewells, deepening rural poverty, by increasing financial burdens on smallholders and exacerbating environmental issues like groundwater depletion. Yet the government’s focus is on grand new projects rather than rehabilitating existing infrastructure.

Pakistan has witnessed increasingly severe floods, prolonged droughts, and retreating glaciers. The 2022 floods affected 33m people, underscoring the increasing severity of climate change and the need for resilient solutions. By prioritising a contentious canal project, the federal government has not only alienated Sindh but also squandered political capital that could have tackled systemic issues as discussed below.

Drip and Sprinkler Irrigation can cut water use by up to 60pc while boosting yields, and it is ripe for rapid scaleup in both Punjab and Sindh.

Canal Lining and Desilting of the centuryold network could recover over 30pc of conveyance losses, improving downstream equity without new diversions.

Rainwater Harvesting and Groundwater Recharge through tubewells and recharge wells in Cholistan can sustain local communities and wildlife, reducing stress on river flows.

Biosaline Agriculture of salttolerant crops provides livelihoods on marginal lands without tapping fresh water, offering a sustainable alternative to desert irrigation.

These measures cost a fraction of megacanal budgets, can be implemented immediately, and unite rather than divide provinces.

The canal standoff has frayed trust across Pakistan. Some fret that a PPP withdrawal could topple the coalition, although others believe that the PPP would never rock the boat and go against the establishment. With the next general elections on their minds, both PMLN and PPP have treated the canal issue as a question of political survival rather than a critical national issue.

Ultimately, Pakistan’s real defeat lies in neglecting its water future. By turning the Cholistan canal into a political football, leaders have been distracted from systemic weaknesses — acute water stress, crumbling infrastructure, and a warming climate that imperils every citizen. If Pakistan hopes to stave off ecological and social collapse, it must abandon divisive megaprojects in favour of consensusdriven, sciencebased water management.

Only through transparent interprovincial dialogue, strict adherence to the 1991 Water Acc­ord, and rapid deployment of lowcost, highimpact solutions prepared by experts and scientists can the Indus remain our shared lifeline — and Pakistan emerge as the true winner of its most urgent challenge.

The writer is the former head of Citigroup’s emerging markets investments and author of ‘The Gathering Storm’

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, April 28th, 2025