ISLAMABAD: Despite some shortages in provincial shares, Pakistan is estimated to have sufficient water availability — slightly higher than the 10-year average and 15pc over last year — during the current Rabi season, raising hopes for a better crop output.

It would, however, be a challenge for the federal and provincial governments to encourage farmers for greater sowing of wheat — the country’s main staple — who faced precarious manmade conditions last season when policymakers could not ensure or withdrew committed wheat support price at the peak of harvesting.

This had left the farming community high and dry and forced to sell their produce at throwaway prices to unscrupulous market elements. The farmers could opt for alternative crops like mustard, barley, gram, peas and oilseeds.

The Advisory Committee of the Indus River System Authority (Irsa) that met on Wednesday “approved the likely anticipated water availability at the four rim-stations of 21.98 million acre-feet (MAF) for Rabi 2024-25, which was about 15pc more than the previous year and also about 1pc more than 10-year average”, an official statement said. The Irsa Advisory Committee (IAC) meeting was presided over by Chairman and Member Balochistan Abdul Hameed Mengal.

Convincing farmers to grow wheat in the wake of last year’s debacle would be a challenge

Based on the above availability at rim stations, the total water availability in the whole of the Indus Basin was worked out at 31.14 MAF, including 10.57 MAF carryover storage in reservoirs as of Oct 1. This “likely availability at the canal heads of 31.14 MAF was about 2pc and 6pc higher than last year’s availability of 30.59 MAF and 10-year average of 29.24 MAF, respectively.

The 10.57 MAF carryover resource in dams was also worked out to be 6pc higher than 10-year average but about 9pc lower than last Rabi. The Basin-wise shortage for Rabi 2024-25 was approved at 16pc. This means Punjab and Sindh — the country’s two food baskets — would get 29.26 MAF, 16pc lower than shares promised in the 1991 Water Apportionment Accord.

The committee approved the anticipated Indus and Jhelum-Chashma Zone losses at 6pc and zero, respectively.

These estimates would, however, be reviewed ending October 2024, in the first week of November, considering the actual system losses. The meeting also allowed the provinces to indented supplies for the maturity of crops and sowing of Rabi crops in October, which will be adjusted towards the overall provincial shares for Rabi 2024-25 later during the season.

As such, the provincial shares were set at 16.68 MAF for Punjab, 12.58pc for Sindh, 0.70 MAF for Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and 1.17 MAF for Balochistan for the Rabi season that starts on Oct 1 and lasts until the end-March.

Published in Dawn, October 3rd, 2024