ISLAMABAD: The extended and massive rainy spell in April, higher-than-usual temperatures and anticipated normal monsoon rainfall have improved kharif crop output prospects.

Taking into consideration the “very promising water situation”, the Indus River System Authority (Irsa) on Wednesday decided “to curtail the shortages for the early kharif period till June 10, from the initial 30pc to 21pc for Punjab and Sindh”, said a statement issued by the water regulator.

After a meeting presided over by Irsa Chairman Abdul Hameed Mengal and attended by all four members, the regulator said it would “continue with full indented supplies for Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa”.

An official told Dawn that the temperatures in Skardu — the major catchment area of Tarbrela dam — had already risen to 27 degrees centigrade on Wednesday against 17 on the same day last year which meant snow melting to improve river flows earlier than normal. Also, the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has indicated that monsoon rains are expected to be normal this year, although a final forecast will be made by mid-June.

Moreover, better storage in dams than anticipated earlier had also significantly addressed the operational constraints arising out of Tunnel-5 construction activities at Tarbela dam. At present, the water conservation level at Tarbela stands at 1,467 feet, while operational constraints for T5 could emerge at 1426 feet.

While reviewing the water situation from April 1 to 30, 2024, Irsa noted that the actual inflows of 10.35 million acre-feet (MAF) far surpassed the forecasted inflows of 7.03MAF, showing a 47pc increase. The increased river inflows — more concentrated in the Kabul and Jhelum Basins — were due to the exceptional westerly disturbances that stretched into April 2024, making the rainfall total for the month 164pc above normal.

The recent rains added about 3.6MAF in storages. Accordingly, the storages in Tarbela, Mangla and Chashma reservoirs stood at 4.358MAF on May 8 (Wednesday), i.e. 48pc above the 10-year average.

Therefore, Punjab’s approved share of 8.252MAF has now been increased to 9.266MAF. Likewise, Sindh’s approved share of 4.934MAF was also increased to 5.548MAF.

Published in Dawn, May 9th, 2024