The Conservative Party of Canada holds a substantial lead in both raw vote numbers and voter enthusiasm, according to the findings of a new poll released by the non-profit Angus Reid Institute on Monday.

The results are from the survey the ARI conducted online on January 16 and 17 with a representative randomised sample of 1,620 Canadian adults, with regards to their opinions on Canada’s next federal election, which is to be held on or before October 20, 2025.

“For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20,” says the ARI about its self-commissioned survey paid for by the institute.

In the present election context, two in five, or 41 per cent, Canadians express their support for Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre and the CPC, while 24pc would cast their vote for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberals, and one in five Canadians would vote for the New Democratic Party of Canada (NDP).

Digging deeper into voter sentiment reveals a notable disparity in motivation. 62pc of Conservative voters (constituting a quarter of the electorate) express their intent to vote based on their support for CPC, Poilievre, and their policies, rather than merely preventing another Trudeau term.

When it comes to those voting for Liberals, there is an inverse trend, with most of these voters more motivated to stop the Conservatives from winning and not so much because they endorse the Liberals’ vision and leader.

Three in five or 63pc of those planning to vote for Trudeau and the Liberals are primarily motivated to do so in order to prevent the formation of a Conservative or Conservative-led government, rather than endorsing the Liberal Party, its leader, or their policies. This indicates that only nine pc of the Canadian electorate is genuinely enthusiastic and inspired about voting Liberal.

The Conservative Party is ahead in every region of Canada except Quebec, where the Bloc Québécois is in the lead, followed by the Liberals and Conservatives, albeit at a significant margin.

In British Columbia, the Liberals are behind the NDP. Both Trudeau and Poilievre encounter broad disapproval, as 64pc of Canadians express discontent with Trudeau, while 40pc hold a favourable view of Poilievre.

The NDP and Bloc Quebecois factor

The ARI report says “many NDP voters appear to be willing to support the Liberals in the event the CPC are on the track to victory”.

More than one-third (36pc) of NDP supporters said they would likely switch their vote to Liberals and three in 10 (30pc) said they would consider that option. 19pc said it was unlikely that they would switch their vote, and 15pc said they won’t be switching their vote from NDP to Liberal.

Among potential Bloc Québécois voters aiming to prevent a CPC win, 35pc indicated the possibility or likelihood of switching their vote to Liberal.

If these groups of NDP and Bloc Québécois supporters opt for the Liberal party, the Liberals would find themselves in a notably more competitive position, holding 34pc of the vote intention, says the ARI.

However, even under these circumstances, the Liberals would still trail behind the Conservatives by a seven-point margin, the report added.

Notably, there remains another one in three non-CPC, non-Liberal voters who say it is “possible” they would switch. If this group supports the Liberals, they would be statistically tied with the Conservatives.

There are many factors that come into play when it comes to Canadians’ voting intentions, but these statistics suggest that the gap between the Liberals and the Conservatives may not be as big as it appears to stand.