THE choice of caretaker prime minister unambiguously spells out who will be in charge during the process leading up to the general elections, whether they take place in November this year, the latest as mandated by the Constitution, or if an extra 90 days are added by special dispensation for fresh delimitations in the light of census 2023.

Many would remember Anwaarul Haq Kakar as the articulate spokesman to the Balochistan chief minister until his elevation as senator after the PPP joined hands with the opposition in the provincial assembly to topple the PMLN-NP chief minister. The PML-N’s Sanaullah Zehri resigned rather than face a no-confidence vote.

Mr Kakar has not been very vocal as a senator and has quietly marked time, perhaps because he was being readied for the big job. He is among a crop of relatively new, military-backed politicians that include his Senate colleagues Sarfaraz Bugti and Sadiq Sanjrani.

All of them belong to the BAP party, cobbled together to curtail the influence of the coalition of nationalist parties with the PML-N that formed a government in Quetta following the 2013 elections. By the 2018 elections, BAP mustered enough support to form the government and, despite internal differences that led to Jam Kamal of Lasbela making way for Quddus Bizenjo as chief minister, remained in the saddle.

What if, in the coming months, the game is steered away from the PML-N’s grasp?

Just two weeks ago, Mr Kakar joined Jam Kamal in calling on the PML-N’s chief organiser, Maryam Nawaz, in Murree to explore joining hands with the party. Jam Kamal used the occasion to pay tribute to the Sharif brothers for their contribution and commitment to Balochistan’s development and also lauded Maryam Nawaz’s role in breathing new energy into the party.

There was speculation that the BAP leaders would formally join the PML-N; they did not. It is now clear why. Viewed against the backdrop of the period since the vote of no-confidence against former prime minister Imran Khan, and particularly since the elevation of Gen Asim Munir as army chief, it is abundantly clear that the ‘same-page’ harmony, between the PML-N and GHQ, continues.

But despite reassurances of all kinds by the military establishment, the PML-N ought to be concerned because, given the glorious uncertainties of politics, especially in Pakistan, what if in the coming months the game is steered away from its grasp? What if the call on Ms Nawaz was mere eyewash to placate the PML-N for now, and allay fears to keep it onside?

When this question was put to a PML-N leader, he responded by saying that the military also needed strong civilian allies on board, and after its break-up with the PTI, it was not as if it was spoilt for choice: “Mian Sahib has made clear that those who created the mess over the past several years need to clear it themselves. In other words, go for a system reset and we will offer full support.”

Given the spate of recent legislation pushed through parliament, including the empowerment of the caretaker government to take decisions way beyond its day-to-day running of state affairs till the elections, could it be that the Kakar-led, military-backed interim administration lasts way longer than provided for in the Constitution?

If that were to happen, one can be sure some kind of special dispensation would be needed from the Supreme Court, or some other law invoked to extend the tenure of the caretaker government. But we also know nothing is impossible in the land of the pure.

Personally, I was alarmed when I heard talk that someone who was apparently asked by a senior officer to consider joining the caretaker administration, was also told that it was envisaged that the set-up being put together would remain in place for at least 18 months as a “lot of difficult, unpopular decisions have to be taken that an elected government would never take”.

One would imagine these difficult decisions would involve privatisation of most state-owned enterprises, many of which, such as Pakistan Steel and PIA, despite incurring huge losses, employ a large number of people and anyone bidding for them would want a free hand for thousands of redundancies before investing even a penny.

Alongside this, it is equally clear that many, many unsavoury measures will be taken in an attempt to engineer a political entity with a huge support base across the country and among the diaspora abroad. Some of these measures are so Machiavellian that no political government would feel comfortable endorsing or even acquiescing in it.

Historically, such measures have failed to achieve the annihilation of a political party. But it is equally true that such steps have dramatically altered the fortunes of many parties, including the PPP, PML-N and even the MQM, and trimmed their power and influence.

Buoyed by the success of running the Covid command and control centre and then leading the process needed to get Pakistan off the FATF grey list, the security establishment believes it has what it takes to turn around the economy by attracting foreign investment in key ventures and projects.

These include mining, petrochemicals, airports and ports, dams, as also corporations currently in the state sector. If the example of the PTCL privatisation in the Musharraf era, where around $800 million are still owed by the UAE buyer, is anything to go by, such deals will need to be scrutinised diligently. But like one analyst said: “Beggars can’t be choosers.”

This is a daunting agenda for a government over a full term, let alone 90 days. Hence, the concerns around how long this arrangement may last. Some of the laws approved by parliament before the National Assembly was dissolved are so oppressive that they render any protest a tall order. Parties in the outgoing Assembly may have limited their own options in case the promised future does not materialise.

Like the country, perhaps, these parties too were short of options.

The writer is a former editor of Dawn.
abbas.nasir@hotmail.com

Published in Dawn, August 13th, 2023