LONDON: A forecast by the Economist Intelli­gen­­ce Unit (EIU) has said Pakis­tan will head to polls in Oct­ober 2023, if not earl­i­­er, and that the economic and foreign debt crisis facing the country will persist.

The analysis division of the Economist Group, EIU, said that political stability and security are “tenuous” in Pakistan, and that economic growth will “slow materially” in 2023.

“Pakistan will conduct national elections in 2023, where we expect the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf Party led by Imran Khan to win owing to widespread discontent with the ruling PML-N coalition, led by the incumbent prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif,” the report said, adding that the political environment will remain marred by violence.

In its baseline forecast, EIU predicted opposition victories in the legislative polls scheduled to be held in Pakistan and Thailand, saying that elections in both countries will be contentious with risk of military interference.

“Pakistan’s election is most likely to occur in October, after the end of the current parliamentary term in August, but it could happen earlier given a worsening economic crisis. Looming loan repayments and a lack of foreign exchange reserves mean the country is teetering on the edge of sovereign debt default. Averting this will require painful economic measures, including severe import repression, that could force an early election,” the report said.

It said, Mr Khan, who is predicted to win the election, will have “little choice but to [negotiate with IMF] again”.

Published in Dawn, April 28th, 2023