KARACHI: Cement sales in the first four months of 2022-23 are expected to have gone down by 21-25 per cent on a year-on-year basis.

Based on data obtained from the All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association, Topline Securities analyst Sunny Kumar said the lower offtake of local cement (-22pc) in the period under review is on the back of higher-than-expected rains across the country, rising construction costs and the inflationary impact that’s restricting demand growth.

As per the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, cement retail prices in October averaged at Rs1,024 per bag in the North region after a decline of Rs24 per bag from the preceding month.

“With higher interest rates, the expected slowdown in economic growth and contained PSDP (Public Sector Development Programme), we expect cement despatches to fall 12pc in 2022-23,” he said.

Cement sales in October are likely to remain flat on a month-on-month basis at 4.1-4.3 million tonnes with local despatches expected to increase 0-4pc from September to hit 3.8-4m tonnes. The average daily sales in the North and South regions are hovering at 99,000-103,000 tonnes and 23,000-24,000 tonnes, respectively.

Sales in October are expected to decline 17-21pc on an annual basis. Local despatches are likely to be down 14-18pc year-on-year due to a slowdown in the overall economic activity and higher construction costs, he said.

However, exports in October are expected to go down 22-26pc month-on-month and 39-43pc year-on-year. “The attrition in exports is on the back of a global economic slowdown,” he added.

Published in Dawn, November 1st, 2022