The PTI’s outstanding electoral success amid a low turnout of voters in the by-elections indicates that former prime minister Imran Khan’s powerful narrative did not build much hope that the issues of deep public concerns would be addressed any time soon. Like its political rivals, the country’s most popular party did not offer any solid programme for a people-centred national reconstruction.

PML-N leaders attribute their party’s electoral defeat to people’s rage against inflation and high utility bills. Then, one may add, there is the slowing down of the economy which cannot take care of growing unemployment and poverty while the overall law and order situation is deteriorating. GDP growth is now forecast at 2 per cent for this fiscal year against the budget estimate of 4.8pc

Going deep into the underlying economic issues, former PML-N finance minister Mifttah Ismail says in the prevailing ‘elite bargain’, essentially 99pc of the population continues to work for the privileged 1pc.

Finance Minister Ishaq Dar has taken an optimistic view of things. He says 10 months is a long enough period for the government to stage a political comeback. His observation can be seen on the backdrop of the government’s reported decision to increase the budget for development schemes proposed by parliamentarians to a record Rs87 billion under the umbrella of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Dar’s optimism that ten months is a long time to stage a political comeback may have a touch of reality

A sum of Rs500m is being earmarked for each constituency to fund the small electricity, gas, community welfare and road schemes. It may be noted that no money was spent on SDGs in the first quarter of this fiscal year.

The PTI members claiming to have resigned from the National Assembly are unlikely to be eligible for proposing SDG projects. According to its decision, the PTI’s electoral victory in the by-polls would not translate into legislative strength though it has further demonstrated IK’s personal popularity.

The SDGs funds are not provided directly to National Assembly members (MNA). Instead, they are released to the executing agencies after approval of MNAs’ schemes (submitted to the prime minister office), by a steering committee on SDGs chaired by the Federal Minister for Planning and Development Ahsan Iqbal.

In its last budget, the PTI government had allocated Rs64bn. The Steering Committee, set up in 2016, takes decisions on the basis of recommendations by district-level committees.

The SDG’s budget allocation has to be increased by Rs19bn, which would be provided by slashing the allocation of Rs18bn for the Special Development Initiatives for the country’s backward districts. With this increase, 12pc of the total Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP) budget of Rs727bn will finance the MNAs’ schemes.

Funding for some of these projects, exceeding the earmarked amount of Rs87bn, will be adjusted against the budget allocation for provincial and special areas. This diversion of development funds will take place despite the fact that in the first quarter of this fiscal year, the overall spending of the PSDP was merely just over Rs48bn.

This spent amount is hardly 6.6pc of the annual allocation of Rs727bn and far less than Rs120.6bn expenditure authorised by the Planning Commission. The Ministry of Finance did not release much of the authorised funds due to financial constraints.

The total spending during July-September was 41pc less than Rs82.5bn by the PTI government in the same period last year. The Higher Education Commission was able to spend only Rs1.3bn or 3pc of the annual allocation, and the Ministry of Health spent Rs112m or 1pc of its annual budget.

However, according to the latest official data, there has been quick disbursement of cash aid among the flood-affected families. Under the Benazir Income Support Programme, Rs65.9bn has been distributed as cash flood relief (out of earmarked Rs70bn) among 2.64 million affected families against targeted 2.76m households. About 95pc of the allocated amount is stated to have been distributed, and only 124 families are left to receive cash assistance.

Overall, about Rs99bn has been spent on relief and rehabilitation work. The floods have caused the country a total loss of over $32.4bn. Pakistan needs more than $16bn for immediate relief and rehabilitation works. The Shahbaz Sharif government is trying to secure the maximum possible amount of foreign assistance.

How far all this will help rebuild political capital lost so quickly by the six-month-old Sharif government is not clear at this point in time. PML-N leaders also recognise that they need to review their media strategy to match Imran Khan’s narrative.

While steadily losing its political capital when in power, PTI more than regained its popularity in a few months owing to its strong narrative unmatched by any other rival party.

As evident from the above political developments, Pakistan is taking quick twists and turns in a fast-transforming world. In these challenging, uncertain times, Dar’s optimism that ten months is a long time to stage a political comeback may have a touch of reality. The government’s performance, especially efforts to resolve the cost-of-living crisis, may help regain some of its lost political capital. And PTI’s acid test lies in what it achieves from the long march.

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, October 24th, 2022